During the period of PASDEP Ethiopia became one of the fastest-growing non-oil economies in Africa averaging 10-11% growth rates, and the economy has continued to increase at this rate. On the basis of the achievements of the Plan for Accelerated and Sustained Development to End Poverty the aims of the Growth and Transformation Plan (GTP), 2010/11-2014/15 are to remove finally the chronic food insecurity from which Ethiopia has suffered for so long, achieve high growth of at least 11% within a stable macroeconomic framework; achieve the MDG targets particularly in the social sectors, and establish a stable democratic and developmental state. The GTP identifies sustained rapid growth, emphasis on agriculture, the promotion of industrialization, investment in infrastructure, enhancement of social development, strengthening of governance, and the empowerment of youth and women as strategic pillars, and defines three strategic directions for strengthening governance: increasing implementation capacity; ensuring transparency and combating corruption; and securing participation in governance – all within a stable macroeconomic framework. It also underlines the importance of prioritizing public sector investment based on rigorous cost-benefit analysis, improving data quality and implementation capacity, maintaining fiscal prudence and continuing tax reform, containing inflation and promoting monetization and competition.
By the end of the plan, the government expects to achieve inter alia a number of ambitious targets. The Growth and Transformation Plan's base case scenario allows for an 11.2% annual growth rate; the high case scenario anticipates 14.9% growth. Either allow for significant increases in agricultural production, possibly doubling it and substantial expansion in industrialization and infrastructural development. Other targets include reaching a per capita GDP of about USD 700 (the current level is about US$ 400); over 2 000 km of new railway line, 8 000 megawatts (MW) of additional power generation, mobile phone density of 8.5 per 100 (up from the current level of 1.5); and a road network of 136 000 km (up from the current level of 45 000 km). Farmers throughout the country are to be provided with access to roads, electricity and telecommunication services.
In the third year of the GTP, the service sector grew by 9.9%, industry by 18.5% and agriculture by 7.1. Currently the service sector provides 45.2% of Ethiopia's GDP, agriculture 42.9% and industry 12.2%. The budget for 2012/2013 (the financial year runs from July to July) was 137.2 billion birr, growing by 18.62%. Over 70% of the capital budget was spent on roads, education, agriculture, water, rural electricity and health development. 107 billion birr was collected from tax and non-tax domestic revenues amounted 17.1 billion birr. Fiscal policy is focusing on strengthening domestic revenue, broadening the tax base and increasing pro-poor spending. This was translated into a reality in which the domestic revenue showed a significant increase reaching 90.44% in the year 2012/2013.
Health sector strategic options, targets and implementation strategies are consistent with the latest health sector strategic plan—Health Sector Development Plan IV (HSDP IV). Health per capita expenditure more than doubled between 2004 and 2010, to US$16.09. Ethiopia has had double-digit GDP growth rates for the last eight years and this is set to continue. The GTP expects to sustain growth rates of between 11% and 14.9%. The Plan allows for major tax reforms and improved tax collection already visible in 2011/2012 with at least 70% of the budget coming from taxes. Other planned developments under the GTP include expanded sales of treasury bonds, increased savings, and the introduction of mortgage schemes. Civil service salaries were raised last year and government pension rates increased. There are now 31 public universities as well as 54 private higher learning establishments with the number of university students standing at 543,000 with 371,000 more enrolled in technical and vocational establishments (in 1995 the numbers were no more than 17,000 and 3,000 respectively).
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