A Week in the Horn

      23/05/2008 

• The Prime Minister on Somalia and Djibouti.

• The UN once again itemizes Eritrean arms and training for Al-Shabaab

• An AMISOM workshop on Somali security

• The Alliance for the Re-liberation of Somalia breaks apart

• Ethiopia’s progress towards WTO accession

• On Wednesday this week, answering questions in Parliament, Prime Minister Meles said Ethiopia, far from being bogged down in Somalia, as some reports have suggested, could leave whenever it wanted. It was, he said, “ready to withdraw [its] forces from Somalia anytime”, and would still be able to contain any threat to its national security. The Prime Minister reiterated that the Ethiopian Defense Forces entered Somalia for two reasons. One was to eliminate the timely and tangible danger posed by the Islamic Courts Union which had severally declared war on Ethiopia, to thwart a clear and present danger. This had easily been achieved within the first week of engagement. The Prime Minister, in the session broadcast live on TV, said the second objective of the Ethiopian operation was to help restore peace and stability to Somalia. And the Ethiopian defense forces were now supporting the people of Somalia in their drive to restructure their country, carry out reconciliation, and consolidate the police and security apparatus to establish a functional government. Ethiopia was also encouraging efforts to negotiate with all opposition figures who were committed to peace. “The next approach is to support the peace negotiations within the society and to enable the Somali people to defend their interests themselves. We have done tremendous work around this issue.” The Prime Minister repeated that Ethiopian forces did not enter Somalia to control the country, but to make sure extremist forces would not be in power there. The Prime Minister did not say, as some reported, that Ethiopia intended to destroy the extremists or root them out completely. Extremists had been in Somalia a long time. They had been there in the time of Siad Barre. There presence was not something new. It was a problem that had been developing for a long time. Ethiopia’s aim therefore was no more than “to break the back of extremists and come back home”. The Prime Minister also pointed out that Ethiopia has never intended to enter Mogadishu ; it had only done so at the express invitation of the city elders. The Prime Minister said that although “the financial burden is not little, it is not something that breaks our backs. The sacrifice we have paid so far was not beyond our capacity or the necessity.” The Prime Minister added : “Whatever sacrifice is paid regarding this issue, so long as we can carry it without any strain, we are determined to carry on. When we believe that the sacrifices we make are too much for us, we will have the right to leave Somalia.” The Prime Minister emphasized that Ethiopia’s involvement in Somalia had contributed to the peace and stability of the region. “The extremists and their surrogates have been dealt a blow”, and those who felt that extremism was the wave of the future have begun to abandon the sinking ship.

In response to other questions, the Prime Minister Meles commended the attempt by Djibouti to peacefully settle the simmering tension with Eritrea, although it subsequently had to bring the case to the attention of the Peace and Security Council of the AU, the Arab League and the UN Security Council. He described Eritrea’s actions as illegal and said they would “destabilize peace in the region”. He added : “we have tried to assess what effect it would have on Ethiopia’s interests. From our assessments, we have concluded that it will not have direct effect on Ethiopia”. He reiterated that Ethiopia had sufficient, and long standing, mechanisms to safeguard the movement of goods on the road linking Ethiopia to Djibouti and would take action if it ever became necessary.

• On Thursday, the chairman of the Security Council’s Somalia sanctions committee briefed the Council on the latest report of the UN Monitoring Committee on the arms embargo on Somalia. The Committee’s report dated April 24th was simultaneously released. The chairman of the sanctions committee told the Council that arms shipments to Somali militants, to opposition groups, had not stopped despite the embargo. He also said, despite numerous reports to the contrary, that Somalia’s overall security situation was getting worse. In his statement, the chairman said that the committee had received worrying reports that elements of AMISOM and the TFG were involved in arms trafficking and supplying ammunition to Somali arms markets. He added that “some” Ethiopians were also creating problems, and talked about the criticisms leveled against Ethiopia in the report with gusto, accusing Ethiopian and TFG troops supplying 80 percent of the ammunition available in the markets. The figure gets little support from the report, and indeed the claims that Ethiopian troops are supplying Al-Shabaab have no plausibility. Ethiopian troops have in fact played a major role in preventing the theft of arms and ammunition in recent months. It is entirely fanciful to suggest Ethiopia is funneling arms and ammunition to Al-Shabaab, or indeed that Al-Shabaab would accept arms from such a tainted source. Nor is the evidence offered by the report hardly convincing. Certainly, the Ethiopian Defense Forces would immediately investigate any sufficiently detailed allegations that any of its own members might be supplying arms to shoot its own troops. This is not the first time that such claims have been made. Repetition does not remove them from the realm of fantasy. We will have more to say about these references to Ethiopia in other ways and next week in the Week in the Horn.

The Committee chairman made a number of references to Ethiopia claiming that it is breaking the arms embargo by its very presence in Somalia. This is simply not true. Its presence in Somalia is in fact in support of the resolution by which the arms monitoring group was established. The African Union commended Ethiopia’s intervention in Somalia which, as the AU underlined, opened up a window of opportunity for peace in Somalia. Interestingly, what the committee chairman did not apparently mention in his press briefings, although it was given plenty of coverage in the report, is the role of Eritrea in support and in the supply of arms to the terrorist organization, Al-Shabaab. The report notes that Eritrea’s role in support for the ICU and Al-Shabaab had been extensively covered in its four previous reports. It details one substantial shipment on January 2 this year, hidden under bags of coffee and potatoes and transported by road through Djibouti and the Somali Regional State into Somalia. The shipment included anti-tank mines, RPG 7s, detonators, mortars, machine guns, ammunition and explosives. It notes another shipment, to an anti-TFG warlord near Kismayo a month later. This shipment included 180 AK47s, RPGs, machine guns, mortars, ZU23s and DShKs as well as ammunition. This came by dhow from Eritrea to Somaliland and then by road.

Most detailed was the information that at the end of last year some 120 Al-Shabaab fighters went to Eritrea for military training at a camp near the border. The group included Somalis, OLF elements, Zanzibaris, Comorians, as well as others from Afghanistan and Pakistan. They trained in the use and assembling of weaponry, making improvised explosive devices, assassination techniques, tactical planning, sniper fire and self-defense. After their initial training they went to different locations, including an island off Massawa for practical training, and then regrouped in Assab for transport to Somalia. In Assab they split up and traveled by different routes to Somalia. Some went by road through the Eritrean-Djibouti border and then via the Somali Regional State to Somalia. Another route was by dhow from Assab to Somaliland, and then by road to Mogadishu. A third route was by dhow to Bosasso ; and a fourth group was transported directly by plane to the Galgaduud region of Somalia. Those who went to Mogadishu arrived there on February 16, 17 and 18. The Government of Eritrea, in a letter from the Permanent Representative of Eritrea to the UN, as might be expected, totally denied the report. The letter claims the detailing of the number and types of weapons and of the methods of delivery is no more than “a transparent gimmick” to provide “a semblance of authenticity”. It then accuses the Government of Ethiopia as being the source of the information.

• This week, the African Union Mission for Somalia (AMISOM) conducted a three day security workshop in Nairobi. It was attended by Prime Minister Nur Hussein ‘Adde’, the Foreign Minister of Kenya, and the Defense Ministers of Uganda and Burundi, the AU Peace and Security Commissioner as well as senior diplomats of the AU and the donor community. Ethiopia was represented by a three member delegation. All speakers emphasized the need to raise the level of attention Somalia was getting from the international community. Prime Minister Nur ‘Adde’ detailed his government’s efforts, providing an overview of the situation in Somalia. He expressed appreciation for the work of AMISOM, and paid special tribute to the Ethiopian National Defense Forces and the Ethiopian Government for their efforts to ensure peace and stability in Somalia. He requested the international community to concentrate on supporting the TFG in terms of capacity building and to provide special consideration in the security sector. He also called on the donors to support the restructuring and rebuilding of the police, of the military and other security institutions.

The Ethiopian delegation, led by the acting head of the Foreign Minister’s Cabinet, Ato Abdeta Derbissa, presented an account of what Ethiopia was doing to strengthen the security sector of the TFG, and build up its capacity, as well as engage in security operations against the extremist Shabaab group. Ethiopia is currently putting a considerable effort into restructuring both Somalia’s military and police. The TFG military has now been reorganized into five battalions with all units subsequently given short-term training following the restructuring. Another five hundred officers have been undergoing intensive training in logistics, medical engineering, artillery and leadership. Once these courses have been completed and the officers deployed, the military capacity of the TFG will be substantially increased. Ethiopia is also currently training close to one thousand one hundred police personnel inside Ethiopia. The trainees have almost finished their training and will be deployed in a few weeks. Courses include counter terrorism, criminal investigation, drug and related trafficking, and ordinary policing. Sixty senior police officers have been trained in criminal investigation, and traffic work, and are already making an invaluable contribution in Somalia. Ethiopia is now working on reorganization of the police and system building within the TFG. It would welcome any non lethal logistical support such as uniforms, boots and other equipment to assist the newly trained police to perform their duties.

Another development is Ethiopia’s plan to train ten thousand security forces for policing duties, with immediate effect. Preparation in terms of recruitment and logistics is underway, but Ethiopia does not have the capacity to finance the project. Nor can either the AU Commission or bilateral mechanisms. There were consultations with stake holders in Nairobi a couple of weeks ago but no results have yet materialized.

Building up the capacity of the TFG is the most necessary condition for creating an environment for dialogue, and helping to create a framework for ongoing reconciliation negotiations while keeping TFG institutions cohesive. There is a need for strong coordination between what Ethiopia is doing and what others have done and will be doing in TFG capacity building. This has yet to be achieved. There is a clear need to come up with a creative framework to ensure effective utilization of resources and avoid duplication. For example, the process of reconciliation talks which started in Djibouti earlier this month will produce more and quicker results if linked into reconciliation at local level. The international community has assisted in the creation of local elective administrations in Gedo, Bay and Bakool and elsewhere. It should now assist efforts in other areas where conflicts are affecting the livelihoods of ordinary people.

The workshop emphasized the need to deal with “spoilers”, whether individuals or state entities, who might want to put a spanner in the wheel of the peace process. These include those violating the UN Arms embargo. A carrot and stick approach was identified as the most effective way to combat the level of violence in Mogadishu in particular and Somalia in general. The need to revisit the mandate of AMISOM was raised, and a number of recommendations for AMISOM’s future structural arrangements outlined. The workshop also noted the need for an effective communications strategy aimed at shaping accurate and positive images of Somalia.

• There were reports last week that the Asmara-based Somali opposition group, the Alliance for the Re-Liberation of Somalia (ARS) was split over the issue of whether to attend the UN sponsored reconciliation talks in Djibouti. Although the ARS delegates refused to sit down with the delegation from the TFG, both delegations described the meeting as successful. They agreed to hold a second meeting at the end of the month. The split, however, was confirmed this week by Sheikh Hassan Dahir ‘Aweys’ who publicly complained that the delegation had gone to Djibouti without consulting him fully. Indeed, according to Sheikh Aweys, the delegation went without consent, and after they had left he sent a mission to order them back. They refused to return. In fact, Sheikh Aweys, a former senior member of the Islamic Courts Union and founder of the terrorist organization, Al-Shabaab, had previously denied being a member of the ARS. He was in Asmara when the Alliance was set up in September last year, but resolutely denied membership. His denial echoed earlier, and equally implausible, claims by a US Congressional Researcher that Sheikh Aweys had never even been a member of the ICU. In an interview this week, Sheikh Aweys made it clear he would never participate in any UN sponsored talks. He claimed the UN was partial and said “we do not want to pursue the process : our plan is to continue the struggle”. He went on to claim the TFG was run by “traitors” and likened them to the European collaborators with Hitler. They would, he said, either be exiled or put on trial. Sheikh Aweys’ views appear not to be shared by many of the ARS, and it seems likely that most of those who have now left Asmara will not go back. The Somali Ambassador to Addis Ababa said this week that the Government in Eritrea had made specific efforts to prevent ARS members from attending the meeting in Djibouti.

• The First Working Party Meeting on Ethiopia’s accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO) took place last week in Geneva. The Ethiopian delegation was led by Ato Girma Biru, Minister of Trade and Industry, and included Ato Neway Gebreab, Economic Advisor to the Prime Minister, Ato Ahmed Tusa, State Minister of Trade and Industry, and Ambassador Fisseha Yimer, Ethiopia’s Permanent Representative to the UN in Geneva, as well as members of the national and technical committee on WTO membership. Members and observers of the WTO attended and the meeting was chaired by Mr. Neil McMillan, a member of the UK Cabinet Office. The Chairman thanked the Ethiopian government for the documents submitted and said he would ask the Ethiopian delegation to respond at the appropriate point or to reply in writing to questions raised by WTO members. Ato Girma Biru then made a comprehensive statement to highlight the benefits Ethiopia envisages would accrue from accession to the WTO. He detailed the wide-ranging economic reforms and structural adjustment measures Ethiopia has implemented since 1992, as well as the results that have ensued in terms of economic growth, export growth and macroeconomic stability. He noted the reform measures currently underway, and underlined the solid political commitment of the Ethiopian government to forge ahead with the WTO accession process. He also spelt out the challenges Ethiopia still saw ahead and the government’s expectations of assistance in its efforts from WTO member countries and from the WTO itself.

After Ato Girma’s statement, the chairman invited WTO member countries to speak. Some 18 countries took the floor, speaking in support of Ethiopia’s accession negotiations. Several raised the issue of Ethiopia’s status as a Less Developed Country (LDC). Paraguay and Lesotho, both speaking on behalf of LDCs called on WTO members to give LDC status due recognition in Ethiopia’s negotiation. Bangladesh called upon member countries not to seek from Ethiopia commitments and concessions that go beyond those that existing LDC members have made. A majority of speakers called upon member countries to fully and faithfully implement the Guidelines on LDC Accession, adopted by the General Council of the WTO on 10 December 2002. They also called upon member countries to show maximum flexibility and to provide technical assistance and capacity-building support to Ethiopia. Cote d’Ivoire, on behalf of the Africa group in WTO, said that Ethiopia is demonstrating that it was an emerging economic power and deserved to be a member of the WTO family. India spoke of an age-old relationship, adding that Ethiopia was the single largest recipient of India’s concessional finance, and emphasized that it would be the primary beneficiary of the duty-free and quota-free market access program recently launched by India. The European Commission, on behalf of the European Union, said Ethiopia could count on the EU’s support. Supportive statements also came from the US, China, Djibouti, Canada, Turkey, Rwanda, Mali and Tunisia.

In the subsequent discussion, a number of countries, including the US and Canada, and the EC, raised questions on Ethiopia’s foreign trade regime to which the Ethiopian delegation responded. The chairman invited member countries to forward further questions in writing by 13 June, 2008, to give Ethiopia sufficient time to answer and to prepare the other documents still required. The whole WTO accession process involves an immense amount of work. The date of the second working party meeting will be fixed in consultation with the government of Ethiopia, with WTO member countries and with the WTO secretariat. Ato Girma expressed Ethiopia’s agreement with the chairman’s directions. He made it clear that Ethiopia felt the first working party meeting on Ethiopia’s accession to the WTO had gone well and had been conducted successful.