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The AU
convenes a Consultative Meeting on Sudan
On Saturday last week, the AU convened a
Consultative Meeting on Sudan. It was a follow-up to the decision
adopted by the 207th meeting of the African Union Peace and
Security Council meeting at the Level of Heads of State and
Government in October last year. The Consultative Meeting, in Addis
Ababa, was unprecedented in terms of participants and of outcome. It
was chaired by Dr. Jean Ping, the Chairperson of the African Union
and attended by members of the African Union High Level
Implementation Panel (AUHIP) including former presidents, Thabo
Mbeki and Pierre Buyoya, the Commissioner for Peace and Security of
the AU, and a number of UN officials, including the AU-UN joint
Chief Mediator, the Joint Special Representative for UNAMID and the
Special Representative of the Secretary General for the United
Nations Mission in the Sudan (UNMIS). Also there were
representatives of IGAD (Ethiopia as the current Chair, and the
Secretariat), the League of Arab States, the Organization of the
Islamic Conference, the European Union, neighbouring states, Special
Envoys of the Permanent members of the UN Security Council,
representatives of Finland, Japan, Norway, Sweden, Qatar and Italy
(the chair of the IGAD Partners Forum), of the Assessment and
Evaluation Commission (AEC), Burundi (current Chair of the AU’s PSC
for May) and Malawi, as Chair of the AU.
The Consultative Meeting was preceded by a High
Level Strategic Review which assessed the political situation in
Sudan in the aftermath of the election and in anticipation of the
final year of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) including the
holding of the referenda in Southern Sudan and in Abyei. The review
agreed on the need to do everything possible to assist the Sudanese
parties to fulfil their commitments under the CPA, to create the
necessary conditions, including technical matters, for the
referenda, support capacity building and conflict mitigation in
Southern Sudan and strengthen co-ordination between AUHIP and UNMIS
and other international partners.
The objectives of the Consultative Meeting itself
were: to facilitate the ongoing process of democratic transformation
of Sudan in line with the CPA, support its implementation and the
resolution of issues related to post-referendum arrangements, to
reach an agreement on the way forward for the main international
organizations and ensure a coordinated approach and action
especially in Darfur. The meeting assessed the situation in the
Sudan in the aftermath of the April 2010 election and in light of
the progress made and challenges encountered in the implementation
of the CPA and in the search for peace, security, justice and
reconciliation in Darfur. It underscored the emergence of a new
reality in the country with the holding of a peaceful election
resulting in elected representatives at all levels. It underlined
the need to learn the lessons for the conduct of the 2011 referendum
and to continue to expand the democratic space which will help to
resolve problems. The meeting underlined the importance of the
partnership between the National Congress Party (NCP) and Sudan
Peoples Liberation Movement (SPLM) as an essential pre-requisite to
steer Sudan through the challenges that lie ahead. It expressed the
confidence that with the right sprit of mutual trust, the two
parties could jointly succeed in completing the implementation of
the CPA in accordance with the time line set in the CPA. On Darfur,
the meeting emphasized that every effort should be made to ensure a
political agreement to the crisis in Darfur is reached before the
January 2011 referendum. It also underlined the need for the Darfur
political process to be inclusive to address all issues of concern
to the people of Darfur, including peace and security, social issues
and reconciliation, taking into account the African Union Panel on
Darfur (AUPD) recommendations and building on the progress made in
the Doha process.
The meeting recognized the critical importance of the developments
in Sudan to the region and to the African continent, as well as to
the rest of the international community. It welcomed the decision of
the AU to begin the operation of the Consultative Forum established
according to the decision of the PSC in October 2009. The Forum will
be co-chaired by the AU and the United Nations, and will bring
together the neighbouring countries of Sudan, IGAD, the League of
the Arab States and AU partners. It will serve as a coordinating
mechanism for the CPA negotiations on post-referendum arrangements
and for the achievement of an inclusive political settlement in
Darfur in the context of an holistic approach to the challenges
facing the Government of Sudan. The participants also pledged to do
everything possible to enhance their support to the Sudanese
parties, bearing in mind that the achievement of lasting peace,
justice and reconciliation in Sudan requires ownership by the
Sudanese.
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Eritrea is not
a factor for peace in Sudan or anywhere else in the region
This week, Eritrea’s Foreign Minister, Osman
Salih, headed an Eritrean delegation to Sudan. The delegation was
taking congratulations from President Isaias to President al-Bashir
on his re-election as President of Sudan last month, and to the
National Congress for its victory. Mr. Osman had discussions with
Mr. Ali Ahmed Karti, State Minister at Sudan’s Ministry of Foreign
Affairs on Tuesday, as well as with other officials in Khartoum and
in Juba. One member of the delegation, Yemane Ghebremeskel, the
director of President Isaias’ office, noted that Eritrea hoped that
the upcoming referendum would lead to a comprehensive unity for the
Sudan. These comments by the Eritrean delegation must have come as
something of a surprise to Sudanese officials. Only a few weeks ago,
President Isaias was calling for a postponement of the elections in
the Sudan and of the referendum due in January next year. The
election was, of course, successfully concluded two weeks ago and
will certainly contribute to the climate of co-operation between
north and south in the Sudan which is so important for the full
implementation of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA). Publicly
encouraging a postponement of either the election or the referendum,
as Eritrea did, suggests an intent to interfere in the
implementation of the CPA. And the CPA is central to the future of
the Sudan as well as fundamental to peace and security of the
region. The CPA, an international agreement, is after all the
foundation of the peace process in the Sudan. Eritrea’s comments
were clearly not intended to assist the process. Indeed, as usual,
Eritrea was demonstrating its own narrow short-sighted agenda, an
agenda devoted solely to Eritrea itself. Any call to interfere with
the CPA must be seen for what it really is, as a highly dangerous
action. It underlined the very basic point that Eritrea remains a
serious danger to peace and stability in the region. It is not a
factor for peace.
As we noted last week, the Government of Eritrea
appears to be making efforts to try and minimize the effects of the
sanctions imposed by the UN Security Council last December (UNSC
Resolution 1907 (2009)). President Isaias has been talking widely to
the media, and dropping hints that Eritrea might finally be prepared
to co-operate with the international community. In fact, as usual
there is little, if any, correlation between the words of the
President and his actions. He has given no indication at all that
Eritrea is prepared to withdraw its troops from Djibouti, that it
will end support for extremist and terrorist opposition to the
Government of Somalia or bring an end to its determined and
continuous efforts to try and scuttle the election in Ethiopia.
Indeed far from stopping its efforts at destabilization in Ethiopia,
Eritrea has actually been intensifying them with the election only
just over a week away. Nothing suggests the Eritrean Government is
interested in changing its regional policies.
Indeed, its regional activities have continued to
show repeated support for terrorist and extremist elements, and it
has made no effort to change activities on the ground. On April 25th
a restaurant in Adi Daro near the Ethiopian Eritrean border
was bombed leaving five people dead and twenty injured, all
civilians. The Tigrai Regional Government identified those
responsible as members of the Tigrai Peoples Democratic Movement, an
opposition movement based in Eritrea where its members have been
trained in terrorist operations; some have even been identified on
Eritrean television in military training sessions. There have been a
number of other bombings and attempts to carry out terrorist
operations in Tigrai Region in and around Humera, near the border
with both Eritrea and Sudan, in recent months. A group of ten
Eritrean-trained terrorists were picked up at the beginning of the
month at the border trying to cross into the Somali Regional State
from Somalia.
In these circumstances, the international
community should be extremely cautious in considering any change of
policy towards Eritrea. The sanctions imposed by the UN Security
Council (resolution 1907, 2009) have already had a significant
impact. Eritrea’s sudden flurry of media and diplomatic efforts make
clear just how worried the Eritrean leadership has become. The
Security Council’s policy has, in fact, been beginning to bear
fruit. What is needed now is the firm implementation of the
sanctions policy, the need to exert more pressure on Eritrea, not
less. Now is the time to demonstrate that the international
community has not been fooled by the efforts of President Isaias or
Eritrea to appear to have moderated policies.
Meanwhile, Prime Minister Meles, last weekend, warned Eritrea that
it shouldn’t draw any false conclusions about Ethiopia’s patience
and tolerance. Aggressors, especially the Eritrean Government, he
said, should realize that Ethiopia’s patience had limits. He said
that the Government of Ethiopia and the defence forces had refrained
from retaliating for what he called “Eritrea’s repeated
aggressions”. This was because Ethiopia abided by international
laws. Indeed, the army was an army of peace, and had, of course,
been involved in many peace-keeping missions in Africa. Prime
Minister Meles, who is also Commander in Chief of the National
Defence Forces, was speaking at the graduation of the third batch of
55 senior military officers at the Ethiopian Defence and Command
Staff College. 18 of the graduates were from abroad, and the Prime
Minister handed out degrees and certificates as well as awards.
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Somalia:
the challenges continue
The difference within the TFG leadership of
Somalia is still going on as some of the parliament members are
still insisting there need to be changes in the leadership of the
institution. The bickering has affected the people of Somalia in
general and the leadership of the TFG in particular, diverting
attention from concentrating on the more important issues facing the
government. It is all-too-obvious that some parliamentarians are
engaged in activities which are far from helpful in the present
situation.
This internal fight within the TF institutions is
unfortunate. Somalis expect their parliament to engage in
formulating laws and proclamations that will move the peace process
forward and help in institution building. This saga needs to be
resolved quickly to allow the TFG to engage in the activities that
need to be accomplished before the transitional period ends. This is
crucial. And it is imperative to address the matter through legal
means. The TFG leadership has to deal with the issue in a manner
that is acceptable legally and in line with the charter and in the
context of the Djibouti Agreement.
In the meantime, a pledging conference for
Somalia's reconstruction is expected to be held in Istanbul, Turkey
at the end of next week, from 21st to 23rd
May. Senior government officials and head of international
organizations including the UN Secretary General Ban ki-Moon are
expected in Istanbul to attend the conference. A lot is expected
from this meeting both in terms of cementing the Djibouti agreement
and to help the TFG in a concrete way. The meeting will also be
considering piracy and a number of other issues. It might be
recalled that disbursements pledged for the TFG and AMISOM following
the Brussels pledging conference in April last year have been very
slow. The TFG did not get the full and necessary support that it had
expected.
In the March meeting of the UN Security Council
Sanctions Committee to consider the arms embargo, it was emphasized
that the TFG lacked the necessary resources. It was stressed it was
the responsibility of the Security Council to strengthen its
capacity, and that this was particularly important. The conference
in Istanbul will hopefully provide the framework to emphasize this
reality further, as well as remind partners to fulfill their
promises, realize the funds which they committed and pledge further
support to the people of Somalia.
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The
UN Secretary-General’s latest report on Somalia
This week the Secretary-General released his
latest report to the Security Council on the situation in Somalia.
It covered events since the previous report at the end of December
last year. The Secretary-General noted that the Transitional Federal
Government (TFG) has continued its attempts to rebuild and
rehabilitate Somalia’s institutions and its efforts to become more
representative, credible, accountable and functional. He welcomes
what he called the “significant breakthrough” of the accord between
the TFG and Ahlu Sunna wal Jama’a (ASWJ) and the establishment of a
body to monitor the agreement, comprising UNPOS, the AU and IGAD. He
referred to President Sheikh Sharif’s attendance at the AU summit in
February and his participation in the March conference of Muslim
scholars in UAE at which strong support was expressed for the TFG,
and all acts of terrorism in Somalia were condemned. The
Secretary-General noted the meeting of the International Contact
Group on April 21-22 in Cairo, and, in February, the AU Peace and
Security Council’s call for greater support for the TFG. It had also
reiterated its call to the UN for a no-fly zone over Somalia, a
blockade of seaports and the deployment of UN operations to help
stabilize the country and support reconstruction.
The Secretary-General felt the overall security
situation in Somalia remained highly volatile and unpredictable with
continued attacks against TFG and AMISOM forces in Mogadishu.
Mogadishu remained a particularly hostile environment. He noted the
continued fighting between Al-Shabaab and Hizbul Islam in Lower Juba
and Lower Shabelle, and between Al-Shabaab and ASWJ in central
regions. There were direct threats to United Nations operations
especially where Al-Shabaab was in control. Al-Shabaab had called
for the termination of WFP operations in Somalia at the end of
February and had occupied WFP compounds at the beginning of March
and early April. He detailed continuing attacks on civilians by Al-Shabaab
and Hizbul Islam and the threats against journalists, with Al-Shabaab
ordering the BBC off the air in April. He underlined his concern of
the effect of the conflict on civilians, and condemned the launching
of attacks by extremists from populated areas. The Independent
Expert at the 13th session of the Human Rights Council in
March had described the situation in Somalia as extremely serious.
There was particular concern over the reports of Al-Shabaab’s
summary executions and mutilations, indiscriminate shelling,
gender-based violence, conscription of children into conflict, and
blocked humanitarian aid. It could all amount to war crimes and
crimes against humanity.
Piracy incidents had declined in the first
quarter of the year, 17 compared to 41 in the same period last year.
This was attributed to the international naval presence in the Gulf
of Aden and the adoption of more robust anti-piracy measures by
merchant vessels. He will be presenting a report to the Security
Council within three months on possible options for the prosecution
and incarceration of pirates. The report also detailed the continued
widespread humanitarian crisis in Somalia, despite good rains and an
above-normal harvest, with 3.2 million people (43% of the
population) needing assistance and livelihood support; 1.4 million
of these are internally displaced. The UN Country team in Somalia
had launched a full investigation into the Monitoring Group’s
allegations of misuse of humanitarian assistance.
On AMISOM, the Secretary-General noted that it
had now reached a figure of 6,120, with the deployment of a 4th
Uganda battalion; a Burundi battalion had been rotated in mid-April.
40, out of 270 authorised AMISOM police officers (from Burundi,
Ghana, Nigeria, Sierre Leone, Uganda and Zambia), had been deployed
in Mogadishu. The TFG has drafted a National Security and
Stabilization Plan, though this has yet to be formally adopted. It
now has 2,800 troops formed into 7 mixed clan battalions under the
command of the Army Chief of Staff, General Gelle. The EU will be
training another 2,000 troops in Uganda during the next year. Somali
Police Force numbers are expected to reach 8,000 by the end of the
year, though equipment and funding remains a problem. The
Secretary-General noted that dealing with defectors had become a
major challenge for the TFG as these are not addressed through
disarmament or demobilization activities. The TFG has set up an
interim inter-ministerial committee and UNPOS is helping to look for
funding. The Secretary-General noted that 75% of the pledges made at
Brussels in April 2009 had now been disbursed, but he appealed
urgently to Member States to release pledged contributions to the
TFG. He remained concerned by the lack of sustainable funding for
troop-contributing countries for AMISOM. While acknowledging the
efforts of AMISOM, he reiterated his call to the international
community to urgently extend to the AU, AMISOM and IGAD the
necessary support to discharge their mandates.
Overall, the Secretary-General felt the TFG had
been making strong efforts to improve security and stability,
beginning to raise domestic revenues. It has established itself as a
serious representative of the interests of Somalis. August 2011
marks the end of the transitional period, and a number of critical
tasks, including the drafting of a constitution, had yet to be
completed. He said he was encouraged by the TFG’s commitment to an
inclusive administration and urged the TFG to keep the door open in
the search for inclusivity. He remained concerned by the TFG’s lack
of capacity and its dependence upon external financial assistance.
He urged Somali leaders to maintain cohesion and dialogue within the
Transitional Federal Institutions. He urged all Member States to
undertake measures to implement the sanctions regime, including
resolution 1907, which imposed targeted sanctions on those
jeopardizing the peace process.
The Secretary-General said he would be reviewing
the implementation of the UN strategy for Somalia with reference to
the need to integrate UN operations, and would be submitting his
findings and options to the Security Council. He said he was keeping
the three-phased implementation approach under review, noting that
progress was being made in establishing a “light footprint” in
Mogadishu, the second stage of the UN’s strategy.
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Ensuring
the integrity of the upcoming election: the case for continuing
vigilance
Election Day is only a week away and electoral
campaigns of the parties are already drawing to a close. The
electoral process has generated a level of enthusiasm among various
stakeholders and the process so far has proved its versatility and a
level of maturity that has become a source of confidence for the
people. The experience has for the most part been a rewarding one.
Even some parties that were recently involved in the zero-sum
politics of violence now appear to have come to terms with the
changing times. The decision by the UWSLF to lay down its arms and
join the peaceful democratic process at this time is a case in point
and very welcome news, testifying to the growing level of confidence
among parties that were previously opposed to the political system.
There are clear indications that the politics of rejectionism are
waning, giving way to tolerance and moderation.
However, there still remain lingering issues of
concern. There have recently been several reports of incidents of
electoral malpractice, and actual as well as attempted terrorist
activities in different parts of the country. In addition to a fatal
bomb attack in the northern area of the country, a number of
terrorist plots orchestrated by the agents of the government of
Eritrea have also been foiled by the Ethiopian security forces,
largely thanks to the people’s vigilance. Some sections of the
legally registered opposition also seem to have been engaged in an
apparent campaign to discredit the legitimacy of the elections by
way of incessantly making unverifiable allegations, in a manner
reminiscent of the deplorable developments of 2005. In another more
alarming development, security officials have recently reported a
bombing incident involving members of one opposition party targeting
members of another party. The result was the death of a few
civilians and one police officer. The brazenness of these attacks
has left little doubt as to how murky the electoral process can get
and the extent to which undemocratic proclivities of the past can
materialize even when least expected.
It all demonstrates that however widespread the
sense of optimism may be, the successful completion of the election
can never be taken for granted. There are a host of reasons that
make holding elections in this part of the world a very tricky
business. Certainly, the regional context has hardly been amenable
to the successful and smooth holding of elections. The existence of
actors in the region, state and non-state alike, who are disinclined
to embrace the ideals of democracy or the peaceful settlement of
differences, has all too often proved problematic in the face of
attempts to build viable democratic culture and effective good
governance. The government of Eritrea may be a text book
personification of this trend, and it’s certainly the most vigorous
of such actors, but it is hardly alone. The region does actually
have more than its fair share of rejectionist elements. Equally,
despite these long odds, Ethiopia has managed to register impressive
results even though it has continued to be taunted by rejectionist
forces. The results often go unnoticed or are even denigrated. This
emboldens these elements led by the Eritrean regime in its campaign
to try to bring about the collapse of Ethiopia’s democratization
process.
This brings us to the other challenge that
continues to be posed against the successful completion of the
electoral process, and against the democratization process and
development endeavours. Ethiopia has, in fact, achieved numerous
positive developments fostering confidence in the democratic
process. The government has been doing a lot to bolster institutions
entrusted with promoting and developing democratic culture. There
are, however, those to whom no amount of goodwill is likely to
persuade giving the ruling party the benefit of the doubt. Leaders
of some opposition parties have left little doubt as to how small is
the regard they have for the rules of the game. The pattern of
behaviour of these parties has been consistent to a fault. They have
flaunted in public their contempt for the constitution and
institutions established under it, particularly the National
Electoral Board of Ethiopia. They have repeatedly shunned the
overtures of the ruling and other opposition parties for negotiation
and constructive engagement. They leave no doubt they have little
use for the precepts of civilized discourse. They have made no
secret of their disdain for the electoral process. They have
repeatedly used whatever media access they have been given, courtesy
of the law, to pile up allegation after allegation against the very
institutions that made the process possible. They are all but
certain the ruling party will rig the next elections; they claim the
ruling party has never been genuine about anything related to
democracy or elections. They have even openly declared their
opposition to the deployment of AU observers and their distrust of
the efficacy of the EU’s observer mission.
It all indicates that rejectionism, despite its
growing marginalization by the peoples of Ethiopia, is still near
enough to rear its head whenever an opportunity presents itself.
This becomes even more dangerous in the context of the feverish
efforts of the government of Eritrea to unleash every kind of
violence to try to scuttle the process by whatever means. These are
challenges that need close attention and vigilance by the public.
The bottom line is that the success or otherwise
of the democratic process depends upon the commitment of the peoples
of Ethiopia. Developments so far have shown unequivocally that the
process is indeed taking deeper root by the day. No amount of
cynicism is going to set the clock back. Equally, with only a week
to go before polling day, none of the negative developments of the
past few weeks should be allowed to stand in the way of the success
of the elections. People should continue to remain vigilant against
destructive tendencies whether within Ethiopia or from threats from
outside. As Prime Minister Meles emphatically stated last weekend,
Ethiopia’s patience towards regional spoilers has its limits. It is
good to remind the likes of Eritrea not to be oblivious to this.
More importantly, it is incumbent upon the peoples and government of
Ethiopia to redouble their efforts to see that the country’s
progress along the path of democratization and rapid economic
development are unhindered by the duplicitous campaigns of the sworn
enemies of the process. Doing this will help to ensure that Election
Day will successfully frustrate the forces of rejection and usher in
the next chapter of Ethiopia’s Renaissance.
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