A Week in the Horn

(21.3.2008)

  • President Girma Woldegiorghis in Germany,

  • Foreign Minister Seyoum visits South Africa; the Minister of State in Yemen

  • The UN Secretary-General recommends UN peacekeepers for Somalia

  • The SGSR for Somalia slams partisan and inaccurate news reports.

  • The US declares al-Shabaab a terrorist organization.

  • Will the Security Council take realistic action against Eritrea next week?

  • The Prime Minister’s latest report to Parliament.

  • EASBRIG takes another step forward

  • H.E Ato Girma Woldegiorgis, President of the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia, has paid a three day official visit to Germany, 17-20 March 2008. During his visit the president held official talks on bilateral,  regional and  international  issues  of  common  interest with Dr. Horst Koehler, President of the Federal Republic of Germany and Dr. Angela Merkel, Chancellor of Germany. The two sides expressed their satisfaction over the excellent state of relations which have always been characterized by mutual understanding and respect. Germany and Ethiopia established diplomatic relations in 1905. President Girma briefed both the President and the Chancellor about preparations for the forthcoming local elections in Ethiopia, the current state of Ethiopia’s excellent economic growth over the last few years and the situation in the Horn of Africa. On bilateral issues the two sides gave particular emphasis to Ethiopia’s Engineering Capacity Building program which is being carried out with the help of Germany. The President also addressed a business forum organized by the German -Africa Business Association. This was attended by a group of Ethiopian businesspeople who traveled with the President to promote their products and to seek for partnership opportunities with German companies.

President Girma also visited the city of Leipzig which has a city twinning agreement with Addis Ababa. On arrival in Leipzig, President Girma was received by the Prime Minister of the State of Saxonia and the Mayor of the City of Leipzig.  He visited the ethnological Museum of Leipzig city where there is a significant Ethiopian collection, and the City Zoo. This contains a lions' enclosure which the City of Leipzig plans to replicate in Addis Ababa.  In his remarks during the visit, President Girma thanked the people of Leipzig for their friendship and underlined the importance of such twinning schemes in encouraging people-to-people relationships. He said the Ethiopian government will do whatever is necessary to facilitate such programs. While in Germany, President Girma gave interviews to various media outlets, including Sud-Deutsch Zeitung news paper, the Lo-Nan magazine and the Leipziger Volk Szeitung.

Meanwhile, an eight-person delegation of the Parliamentary Friendship Group for Eastern Africa of the German Bundestag are visiting Ethiopia this week. The aim of the visit is to contribute to closer Ethio-German relations during the Millennium Year. The group, which represents all political parties in the German Bundestag, will meet with President Girma following his return from Germany as well as Prime Minister Meles and various Parliamentary officials during their visit. They will also be visiting projects of Ethio-German cooperation.

  • The first meeting of the Ethio-South Africa Joint Ministerial Commission took place in Pretoria, South Africa, on Monday and Tuesday this week. The Ethiopian delegation to the Joint Ministerial Commission meeting was led by Foreign Minister Seyoum Mesfin, and for South Africa by Dr. Nkosazana Dlamini Zuma, South African Minister of Foreign Affairs. The meeting focused on bilateral, regional and international issues of mutual concern and three agreements were signed: an Agreement for the Promotion and Protection of Investments; a Memorandum of Understanding regarding Industrial and Technical Cooperation; and an Agreement on the Establishment of a Joint Ministerial Commission. These will provide a real basis for increased cooperation between Ethiopia and South Africa and to increase investment and trade. The Agreement for the Promotion and Protection of Investment will play a pivotal role in boosting investment between the two countries. Similarly, the Memorandum of Understanding regarding Industrial and Technical Cooperation will be instrumental in encouraging economic cooperation in areas such as leather and leather products, textile, meat and meat processing, horticulture, agriculture and agro-processing, mining and energy, tourism, manufacturing and the assembly of high tech products as well as transport and communications infrastructure. Lastly, the Agreement on the Establishment of a Joint Ministerial Commission will serve as an indispensable mechanism for monitoring the implementation of the agreements and enhancing this multifaceted cooperation. The next Joint Ministerial Commission meeting is expected to take place in Ethiopia in 2010, though this will be preceded by a meeting of officials in Addis Ababa next year to finalize negotiations on all the draft agreements.

The two Foreign Ministers also held bilateral talks. Minister Seyoum briefed Dr. Zuma on preparations for next month’s local elections, and Ethiopia’s role in Somalia, and on the current impasse over the Ethiopia Eritrea border. Minister Zuma urged both parties to remain committed to the implementation of the Algiers Peace Agreement. Both countries confirmed their commitment to strengthening of the African Union, to the consolidation of the African Agenda and to the centrality of NEPAD in Africa’s efforts to deal with poverty and underdevelopment. Foreign Minister Seyoum also had an audience with President Mbeki at which Foreign Minister Zuma was also present. 

  • Ethiopia’s State Minister for Foreign Affairs, Dr. Tekeda Alemu, paid an official four day working visit to Yemen this week at the invitation of the Yemen’s Foreign Minister. During his visit, the State Minister had an audience with H.E. the President of the Republic of Yemen, Ali Abdullah Saleh, as well meetings with the Prime Minister, the Foreign Minister and other senior officials.  He presented a letter to the President of Yemen from Prime Minister Meles Zenawi, and also delivered a message from Foreign Minister Seyoum Mesfin to Dr. Abubakr Al-Qirbi, Foreign Minister of the Republic of Yemen . During his visit, the State Minister held extensive discussions on bilateral and regional issues of mutual concern and interest, among them the current situation of Somalia, the situation between Ethiopia and Eritrea, as well as the Sana'a Forum for Cooperation, Middle East issues and other bilateral interests. During these meetings, there was agreement on the need to strengthen the people-to-people relations and the private sector involvement in business and in the economic relationship of both countries. The State Minister was assured by Yemeni officials that the Yemeni government had the highest regard for relations between the two countries. There was agreement that contacts between the two sides should be as frequent as possible. Before leaving Yemen, the State Minister gave an interview to Yemen TV on the bilateral discussions he had had, and a press conference to journalists on the overall situation of the sub-region.  
     

  • On Tuesday, UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon, issued his latest Report on the situation in Somalia (S/2008/178 14.3.2008).  The Secretary-General underlined that there was a window of opportunity in Somalia following the appointment of Prime Minister Nur Hussein ‘Adde’, providing a renewed chance to make further progress in reconciliation and successfully complete the remainder of the transition period. He called it “a unique opportunity for proactive engagement by the international community to support domestic initiatives”. He welcomed the commitment of the Prime Minister to effectively engage with all Somalis irrespective of political affiliation. The Secretary-General characterized the security situation as volatile, with the Union of Islamic Courts, and other anti-government elements, continuing to target Ethiopian armed forces and the forces of the TFG, police stations and Government authorities. He said there were indications that international terrorists had sought safe havens in Hiraan and Juba, and in recent weeks concerted attacks had involved the use of field guns and mortars in heavily populated areas, reportedly leading to considerable loss of life, property damage and massive displacement of people. While not mentioning any country by name, Mr. Ban Ki-moon clearly indicated Eritrea when he wrote of the complications for Somalia caused by the proliferation of arms and of Somalia “as a stage for a proxy war among neighbors”.

The Secretary-General said AMISOM’s strength (as of 20.1.2008) stood at 2,613 and discussions for deployment of pledged Ghanaian and Nigerian troops continued. Ten Nigerian officers arrived in Mogadishu yesterday to assess conditions prior to the planned Nigerian deployment. The Government of Sweden has pledged a hospital. The Secretary-General noted that on February 20, he had received a request from the Chairperson of the AU asking for the UN to provide a financial, technical and logistical support package for AMISOM, totally some 885 million dollars. The UN Secretariat is reviewing the request to identify possible responses.

During the period under review, the UN sent two missions to Somalia, one headed by the Department of Political Affairs, the other by the Department of Peacekeeping Operations, both of which the Secretary-General largely endorsed. The Department of Political Affairs suggested a three track approach to attain peace and stability: a political process leading to dialogue between the TFG and the opposition, strengthening the emerging will for peace; an improved  security presence, while avoiding any security vacuum; and thirdly, effective delivery of humanitarian and increased development activities. Preliminary activities in all these three areas have already been launched by Prime Minister Nur Hussein ‘Adde’, the TFG and Ethiopian forces, but any major progress will depend upon real assistance from the international community. The Secretary-General reiterated his call for implementation of the National Reconciliation Congress, including the development of the road map to establish a functional local administration, the constitutional process, preparation for a national census and the elections of 2009, and implementation of a National Security and Stabilization Plan.   

The second mission was that by the Department of Peacekeeping Operations to produce contingency plans for a possible deployment of a UN peacekeeping mission. This identified four scenarios identifying increased security and improvements in the political process which the Secretary-General saw as potentially sequential. These would allow the relocation of UN staff from Nairobi to Somalia; the relocation of the UN Political Office for Somalia to Mogadishu; the deployment of an impartial stabilization force, made up of a Coalition of the Willing and AMISOM, and the withdrawal of Ethiopian troops after a broad-based political agreement; and finally the installation of a UN force after far-reaching political and security agreements had been reached. The UN Secretariat is in the process of updating its contingency plans for a possible integrated UN force peacekeeping operation to succeed AMISOM. The report suggests any UN force would need to be between 15 and 21 infantry battalions, that is up to 27,000 troops with a possible police component of 1,500. This is a far higher number than ever envisaged by the AU, and far greater than the forces currently deployed by the Government, and by Ethiopia.

The DPKO Mission incidentally noted that hostilities in Mogadishu appeared generally to be confined to the five districts of Yaqshid, Wardhigley, Hawl-Wadag, Hodan and Bondhere. In other areas the mission visited, districts were “seen to be populated: stores were open, transport was moving and the port was active”. The mission did not make its own estimate of the numbers fleeing Mogadishu; the Secretary-General appeared content to accept the inflated UN figures for the numbers displaced from the city despite evidence to the contrary, and the counting carried out by the UN and the TFG in November.                         

In his own observations the Secretary-General, endorsed the mission reports. He also called for further support for AMISOM, which he commended, for a reliable and visible human rights capacity, and expressed his concern over the lack of access and operational problems that affected the distribution of humanitarian assistance, noting that the number of checkpoints had increased in the last quarter. He regretted the ongoing skirmishes between Somaliland and Puntland. The Secretary-General reiterated his earlier recommendation to the Security Council to strengthen the mandate of the UN’s Political Office for Somalia (UNPOS) and give it the necessary resources to implement an integrated UN approach to Somalia’s problems.  

The same point was emphasized by the Secretary-General’s Special Representative for Somalia, Mr. Amadou Ould-Abdallah who briefed the Security Council yesterday. He outlined his efforts to continue his regular contacts with all parties, and referred to the conference he had organized in January, of Somalis and international business contacts to discuss how the private sector could help move from a war-time to a peace-time economy. He is convening a larger follow-up summit next week. It will be opened by Prime Minister Nur Hussein ‘Adde’. Mr. Ould-Abdallah stressed the need for greater international engagement in support of simultaneous action on the political and security fronts. AMISOM, he said, was doing an excellent job, but he said a strong interim multi-national presence should also be an option. He suggested a UN naval task force to protect humanitarian supplies, deter people smuggling, reduce piracy and support the arms embargo. Mr. Ould-Abdallah called for a greater UN presence in the country, suggesting the UN Security Council should visit the country later this year. This, he noted, would need acceleration of security sector and police training. Ethiopia is currently planning to start the training of 10,000 military and police for the TFG, to add to over two thousand already in process, and several hundred others whose training has been completed. Mr. Ould-Abdalah concluded by saying that Somalis themselves had to change their approach, dropping their winner-takes-all attitude and be prepared to compromise. He also underlined that any analysis of Somalia must not be based upon the work of partisan and inaccurate news reports so popular with computer users.

  • Meanwhile, on Tuesday the US Secretary of State’s Office made public its designation of al-Shabaab as a Foreign Terrorist Organization and a Specially Designated Global Terrorist Organization. US Secretary of State, Condoleessa Rice, made the order three weeks ago and it covers al-Shabaab under numerous various alias it has adopted for issuing communiqués in Mogadishu including the Mujahideen Youth Movement and the Unity of Islamic Youth. The effect of this is to prohibit any provision of any resources or material support, and the blocking of all property and interests that al-Shabaab have in the US or which might be under control of the US. The statement said that designations of this kind were an important element in the fight against terrorism and were an effective means of curtailing support for terrorist activity. The statement gave some of the reasons why al-Shabaab had been designated as a terrorist organization. These included the belief that many of its senior leaders had trained and fought with al-Qaida in Afghanistan; and that it had used intimidation and violence to try and undermine the Government of Somalia. It noted al-Shabaab had threatened to disrupt last year’s National Reconciliation Congress, and had claimed responsibility for shooting Deputy District Administrators, as well as targeting Ethiopian troops and government officials by bombings and shooting. It said that al-Shabaab’s leader, Aden Hashi Ayro, had ordered his fighters to attack AU troops in Mogadishu. It might have added that al-Shabaab had been responsible for at least two or three hundred assassinations of moderate politicians in Mogadishu both before and during the establishment of the Islamic Courts in Mogadishu between June and the end of December 2006. The US statement said that the designation of al-Shabaab as a terrorist organization will raise awareness of its activities and help undercut al-Shabaab’s ability to threaten targets in the region and destabilize the Horn of Africa.
     

  • Next week, the United Nations Secretary General is expected to give the Security Council a report on the future of UNMEE, offering options and suggestions on the UN presence in the region. Eritrea effectively evicted UNMEE last month through the restrictions imposed on the Mission, including prohibition of fuel. It also prevented the temporary relocation of the Mission to Ethiopia. The Secretary General was eventually forced to withdraw the members of the Mission, sending them back to their own countries, in order to ensure their security. Making a number of lame excuses for its behavior, Eritrea attempted, unsuccessfully, to blame the UN for the withdrawal. It also compounded its position by making a series of grave but unjustified accusations against UNMEE personnel. Last week, the Security Council firmly condemned Eritrea’s mistreatment of UNMEE, but pulled back from its previous promises to take “appropriate measures” against Eritrea. When it considers the Secretary-General’s suggestions this week the Security Council will no longer have the excuse of concern about the safety of UNMEE personnel to inhibit it from resolute action. The central point is that Eritrea should not be allowed to dictate to the Security Council, or manipulate consideration of the situation by its illegal acts. The Secretary General has repeatedly made it clear in the context of the temporary relocation of UNMEE that any suggestions about the future cannot affect the continued validity of the Algiers Agreement on Cessation of Hostilities. Similarly, the Security Council cannot afford to let Eritrea get away with such humiliating treatment of a UN peacekeeping force. It will, at the very least, create a highly dangerous precedent for the future of peacekeeping and the authority of the Security Council and of the UN, both rather obviously flouted by Eritrea on numerous occasions.
     

Eritrea’s demolishment of the Temporary Security Zone and its humiliating treatment of UNMEE also violate obligations that Eritrea as well as Ethiopia assumed under the Algiers Agreement on Cessation of Hostilities. Under the Agreement the two sides agreed that punitive measures should be taken if either or both violated these obligations. The two parties agreed that these are fundamental obligations and constitute the foundation for the Algiers Agreements. Accordingly, the Agreement allows for invoking Chapter VII of the UN Charter and calls for the Security Council to take the necessary enforcement measures.

Eritrean commentators frequently put a whole series of inaccurate ulterior motives and claims into Ethiopia’s mouth. One earlier this week, usually rather more objective, is the author of “No War, No Peace, Just Proxy War Masks” (Awate.com 18.3.2008). He argues that Ethiopia’s priorities for the peace were to acquire a return to the status quo ante, the permanent removal of any threat from Eritrea and return to the Ethiopian Eritrean relationship of the period 1991-1997. This is not quite the case. Ethiopia, as it has repeatedly made clear, has been ready to demarcate the boundary according to international norms through dialogue, to make sure that the end of the process would not be the beginning of another crisis. Ethiopia’s main objective is to bring closure and finality to the dispute, to allow for the restoration of cross-border trade, movement of people, mutual ties, all good neighborly links. This does not appear to be the aim of Eritrea. Indeed, Eritrea appears firmly opposed to any normalization of relations as it has repeatedly made clear in recent months. It’s hardly necessary to underline the point for Eritreans, but the Government of Eritrea hardly ever sees eye-to-eye with anyone. It’s not just Ethiopia. It has firmly rejected all those who have tried to talk to it, offered to mediate or proffered their good offices as most recently UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon has done. 

The author also claims that the creation of the TSZ was an alternative to destroying or disarming Eritrea, and Ethiopia somehow saw the TSZ as Ethiopian. This is hardly the case. The TSZ’s importance lies entirely in the fact that it was meant to ensure the separation of forces and thus secure a conducive environment for a lasting settlement of the dispute between the two countries, including the demarcation of the boundary. Incidentally, the author even alleges that Ethiopia occupies Eritrean territory. In fact, as long as demarcation is not completed, neither can be said to be occupying the territory of the other, even though at the moment both sides are controlling what would otherwise be each other’s territory. The author makes a number of similarly inaccurate remarks even denigrating Ethiopia's record of UN peacekeeping missions as far back as the Korean war, and more recently consistently since 1994 when there were few ready to contribute to the stabilization of Rwanda after the genocide there. There is a contrast to be drawn here with the activities of Eritrea, which in Somalia have been the very antithesis of peacekeeping, as have its well-authenticated support for terrorism in the region.

Whatever the situation in the past may have been, today Ethiopia is ready to accept third party facilitation, whether by the Secretary-General or anyone else he might suggest. Since November 2004, Ethiopia has very clearly stated its full commitment to the EEBC Decisions. By contrast, as the author of “No War, No Peace, Just Proxy War Masks” very well knows, Eritrea has steadily been violating fundamental obligations of the Algiers Agreement and thwarting all initiatives for peaceful resolution of the conflict, including the latest effort at mediation by the UN Secretary General over several years. Eritrea’s belligerent behavior, and its illegal actions, are not merely grave violations of a bilateral agreement but also of the United Nations Charter. A failure to punish Eritrea sets a dangerous precedent for the Security Council. It is no excuse to say that the Council rarely takes punitive measures. Implications of inaction are far reaching, and will leave a lasting imprint on international peacekeeping. Hence, the need to take action before it is too late.  The Council should consider Eritrean actions as a clear rejection of peaceful resolution of all disputes with Ethiopia, including demarcation of the border in the context of what amounts to normalization of relations.  Eritrea’s acts also amount to an obvious effort to destabilize the region.

  • On Tuesday, Prime Minister Meles Zenawi made another of his regular reports on his government’s performance to the House of People's Representatives. On this occasion his account focused almost entirely on the steps being taken, or planned, to tackle the current state of inflation, the rise in the price of consumer goods including food which has surfaced as the result of shocks in the global market and the growing discrepancy between supply and demand following Ethiopia’s own continued growth rate of over 10% for the last five years. The Prime Minister noted that the high rates of economic growth in Asia, particularly in China and India, and elsewhere, have sharpened the competition for goods. Coupled with high oil prices, and droughts in, for example, Australia, the result has been high food prices across the world. Among the measures taken by the Government to address these price rises have been subsidies of the grain market as well as of edible oil by hundreds of millions of birr. Other measures now taken to control growing inflation and assuage the impact of growing prices particularly on the low income group in urban areas include rescinding VAT and turnover taxes on food crops.  The Prime Minister said the gap between supply and demand would dwindle over time, but for the moment the government would continue to subsidize wheat, edible oil and other consumer goods to help support vulnerable groups. The Government, he said, was also making a change in approach with regard to tackling illicit trading, particularly hoarding which had been aggravating the rise in prices. Tough measures were warranted to monitor unlawful practices by fraudsters and avaricious business persons. The Government has now set up a taskforce, drawn from relevant government bodies, to regulate unlawful trading and bring violators before the court to be dealt with in accordance with the law. Despite current problems, the Prime Minister emphasized that the Ethiopian economy was sound and healthy, and was projected to grow by 10.8 in 2008. Likening it to a muscular physique that wouldn't easily succumb to any ailment, he said it could withstand any transient cold. Responding to questions, the Prime Minster said the average 10 percent economic growth, registered over the past few years, had benefited Ethiopian farmers, the bulk of the population and the urban areas. Economic gains accrued have trickled down well into the wider community allowing reasonably fair distribution of resources.  But, he added, more has to be done to improve the income and livelihood of the low income groups.  He said the government had already implemented a significant pay rise to civil servants to help them cope with the rising cost of living. Efforts were also well underway to transform an over cumbersome marketing system.  Pledging to take all measures necessary to overcome inflation, the Prime Minister also urged farmers to increase productivity to ensure demands can be met.
     

  • Last week, army chiefs of staff and Ministers of Defense from countries involved in the Eastern Africa Standby Brigade (EASBRIG) met in Kampala. A two day army chiefs’ meeting was followed by a Council of Ministers meeting. EASBRIG is one of the five regional forces of the African Standby Force (ASF), being set up under Article 13 of the AU’s Protocol Relating to the Establishment of the Peace and Security Council (of 2002). These are to have responsibilities with respect to the deployment of peace support missions and interventions in accordance with the Constitutive Act of the AU. The ASF will be composed of standby multidisciplinary contingents ready for deployment at appropriate notice. The other elements of the ASF are: the Southern African Development Community’s Standby Brigade (SADCBRIG); the Central African Economic and Monetary Community Standby Force (CSF); the Economic Community of West African States Standby Force (ESF); and the Northern Africa Standby Brigade (NORTHBRIG). A Memorandum of Understanding for EASBRIG’s establishment by the Member States of the Eastern African Region was concluded in April 2005.  EASBRIG has its Brigade Headquarters and a Logistics Base in Addis Ababa (Ethiopia) while its Planning Element (PLANELM) and the Coordinating Mechanism (EASBRICOM) are located in Nairobi (Kenya). Until the creation of EASBRICOM in January 2007, the establishment of EASBRIG was being coordinated by IGAD (the regional Intergovernmental Authority on Development).  The countries from which EASBRIG will be drawn are Burundi, Comoros, Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Madagascar, Mauritius, Rwanda, the Seychelles, Somalia, Sudan, Tanzania and Uganda, though not all are participating. Eritrea, for example, refuses to have any involvement.

Last week’s Chief of Staff’s meeting was largely technical dealing with this year’s Command Post Exercise which is already underway in member states, and with the development of the force generation concept, which the Brigade Commander is expected to finalize in the near future. The budget was proposed, and passed by the Council of Ministers. There was animated discussion on a policy framework document produced after last year’s Seychelles workshop suggesting the creation of an East African Peace and Security Secretariat with a number of different directorates to replace current structures. The Council of Ministers agreed this needed further study. EASBRIG Member States including Ethiopia have already committed the necessary troops and equipment for the realization of its objectives; and EASBRIG now plans to have a fully operational and multi-dimensional integrated brigade by 2010 to fulfill East Africa’s requirements in the AU’s proposed African Standby Force.