A Week in the Horn (14.3.2008)

  • Eritrea’s latest Note Verbale; UN Security Council considers UNMEE’s future
  • AMISOM’s first anniversary
  • US Senate Hearing on American policy options in the Horn of Africa 
  • Foreign Minister Seyoum meets Sir Derek Plumb of the Sudan’s CPA Assessment Commission.
  • The OIC General Secretary’s intriguing comment on Somalia
  • US State Department Human Rights Reports
  • Ethiopia reiterates support for the One China policy

 

  • On Wednesday, the Eritrean Ministry of Foreign Affairs sent yet another Note Verbale to the UN Secretary-General, criticizing Mr. Ban Ki-moon’s most recent report to the Security Council (March 3). It opened by listing what it described as four key pillars of international law, which it claimed Ethiopia had violated. In the circumstances, they were a curious choice as Eritrea itself openly violated the first (respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity of UN member states) by its invasion of Ethiopia in May 1998, and the fourth (integrity and respect for treaties) by its violation of the Temporary Security Zone and the expulsion of UNMEE, both central items of the treaties which ended the war - the Agreement on Cessation of Hostilities of June 2000 and the Algiers Agreement of December 2000. Equally, Ethiopia has always fully accepted the second (sanctity of colonial boundaries in Africa) and third (resolution of disputes through legal arbitration), and underlined this by its agreement to the EEBC’s Delimitation Decision.

 

The Note Verbale claims that the relocation of UNMEE should not have been taken without consultation with the Eritrean Government. The point was fully addressed by the Secretary-General in his report. It is clear that the Eritrean Government continuously refused to discuss the issues raised by UNMEE and the constraints it imposed upon the mission in order to restrict its sphere of operations and force it out. In a disgraceful travesty of truth, the Note Verbale even claims that Eritrea “has always treated the UN peacekeepers with respect and dignity”. It has never done so. Almost from the first deployment of UNMEE, Eritrea displayed animosity towards the peacekeeping force and its presence in the Temporary Security Zone.

 

This latest Note Verbale appears to underline a point that many observers have made: that Eritrea, for its own internal reasons, does not really want any settlement of the border issue. It prefers to use the failure to reach agreement as an excuse to keep over 400,000 national service conscripts mobilized and under military discipline. It uses the same excuse (that Eritrea is at war) to refuse to implement its 1997 constitution although this was actually passed by the National Assembly. It quotes the same reason for not allowing the creation of political parties, holding national elections, or permitting any independent media. The BBC correspondent in Asmara was expelled earlier this week for suggesting the Eritrean government silenced critics. Eritrea even claims this excuse as a reason for setting up special military courts which do not allow for legal representation or the right of appeal, and for holding thousands of political and other prisoners without charge or trial, indefinitely under conditions which have been described as a disgrace to Africa. In fact, Eritrea does not want to see a sustainable peace with Ethiopia, nor does it want to see a closure to the crisis between the two countries as Ethiopia. 

 

  • Meanwhile, a majority of UNMEE peacekeepers have now left Eritrea. By mid week, nearly 400 Jordanian troops had arrived back in Amman, and just over 300 Indian troops had returned to India. More flights are scheduled for next week. Yesterday, the Security Council had a closed door briefing on the present situation of UNMEE’s relocation from Jean-Marie Guehenno, the UN Under-Secretary-General for Peacekeeping Operations, largely based on the Secretary-General’s Report of March 3. Following this, the Security Council deliberated on whether it should take strong measures. It appears that one or two members succeeded in preventing the majority from taking a principled position in defense of UNMEE and the credibility of UN peacekeeping. Faced by the prospect of Eritrea’s unpredictable and thuggish behavior, and the failure of some members to live up to their principles, the Security Council agreed to wait for the next report of the Secretary-General, due at the end of the month. In this report, the Secretary-General is expected to make suggestions and outline possible options for a continued UN presence in the region. The Council then agreed on a five point statement for Russia’s Ambassador Vitaly Churkin, current UN Security Council President to make to the media. The Security Council continues to take note of the situation of UNMEE and its relocation progress. It extends its gratitude to the troops contributing countries for their work. It affirms that relocation does not affect the Temporary Security Zone, the Cessation of Hostilities Agreement and the Algiers Agreements in general. It insists that Eritrea must co-operate over the relocation of UNMEE personnel; and says it will evaluate possible future options for a UN presence after consideration of the Secretary-General’s next report.

 

It is regrettable that the Council failed to take the appropriate actions that it had promised to consider in its statement of 15 February when it condemned Eritrea’s humiliating treatment of UNMEE. The Security Council, and the UN, cannot afford to allow this dangerous precedent to go unaddressed. As Jean-Marie Guehenno told a Special Committee on Peacekeeping Operations on Monday, the temporary relocation of UNMEE from Eritrea was “a serious challenge to the authority of the Security Council”. It was, he said, a painful reminder of the dangers of letting a peace process wither away without sufficient, concerted international effort to encourage both parties to stay engaged with the process. Ethiopia expects the Security Council to decide to act firmly and decisively when it considers the Secretary-General’s next report. It is a matter of principle, and those who claim to stand for principle will be expected to stand up and be counted. 

 

  • It has been just over a year since the first AMISOM peacekeepers arrived in Mogadishu (on March 6, 2007). The force was mandated to protect Somalia's transitional federal institutions to enable them to carry out their functions of government, and secure key infrastructure. Apart from providing VIP escorts, AMISOM has been limited to conducting confidence-building patrols within its area of operations and to protecting the airport, seaport, Kilometer 4 and Villa Somalia, the presidential residence in Mogadishu. It has also received significant amounts of surrendered weapons, has provided humanitarian support to the local population and escorts for humanitarian organizations in Mogadishu. On 20 August, AMISOM's mandate was extended by the Security Council for six months, allowing for the contingency planning of a possible UN peacekeeping operation.  Its mandate was again extended on February 20th for another six months. The intention was for the force to deploy 8,000 troops and replace the Ethiopian forces assisting the TFG as soon as possible. In addition to the original 1,800 Ugandan troops, Burundi promised two battalions, 1,500-1,600, Nigeria 850 and Ghana 350. However, as AU Commission chairman Alpha Omar Konare noted in a report to the AU Peace and Security Council on 18 January, member states and donors urgently needed to provide more resources to AMISOM. Their failure meant, he said, that the progress made towards lasting peace and reconciliation in Somalia was limited. Both the numbers of troops and the financial resources pledged were insufficient and slow to arrive. According to the AU, a little over US$32 million of the mission's budget of about US$622 million has been contributed by the EU, Italy, Sweden, China and the League of Arab States. Other pledges have come from the UK, EU, Italy, the US, NATO, Algeria, Kenya and Nigeria. As a result AMISOM has been unable to fulfill expectations. There is agreement that a larger and more robust force is needed, and the AU has been looking to the UN for assistance. A 15 February briefing to the UN Security Council by the AU’s permanent observer to the Security Council underlined that both the African Union, and the international community, expected more from the Security Council. The security situation in Somalia, the AU noted, remained a real challenge for the AU as well as a threat to international peace and security.  The Security Council will be holding a meeting on Somalia on 20 March after the Secretary-General reports on the prospects for a UN Peacekeeping mission.

 

  • On Tuesday, the US Senate Foreign Affairs Committee held a hearing entitled “Evaluating US Policy Options on the Horn of Africa”. It was chaired by Senator Russell Feingold whose opening statement emphasized that the hearing was intended to inform the legislative process in the Senate as well as underline the need for an interconnected and balanced US approach to the region, by which Senator Feingold meant Eritrea, Ethiopia and Somalia, while addressing each country specifically. Repeating the view he expressed in a speech to the Senate a few days earlier, Senator Feingold suggested the situation in the region had gone from bad to worse since he had visited there a year ago. He spoke of declining trends, of a political crisis escalating in Ethiopia as well as Eritrea, and of fighting in Somalia that showed no sign of abating. He said the problems of Somalia, which arose out of long-standing clashes between Ethiopia and Eritrea, had a ripple effect across the region. He said there was a need for a long-term comprehensive US strategy for the region and spoke of the dangers arising when decisions are made without any such strategy. He might have added that any such decisions also need to be based upon accurate knowledge and information.

 

On the other hand, Jendayi Frazer, the State Department’s Assistant Secretary for Africa, and Theresa Whelan, Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for African Affairs, saw the situation in Ethiopia and Somalia as progressing, if still more slowly in Somalia than hoped. Jendayi Frazer referred to improved regional stability and governance, itemizing the moves towards dialogue in Somalia and US support for this. She spoke of “the emergence of a new, positive, yet fragile, momentum” in Somalia, of Ugandan plans to deploy another 1,600 troops for AMISOM, and the growing isolation of al-Shabaab. Theresa Whelan similarly referred to the strategic importance of the region to the US, its activity in combating terrorism and building local capacity. She said that ONLF activities, supported by Eritrea, posed genuine security concerns for Ethiopia, and added that the ability of al-Qaida, and its affiliates, to use Somalia was a real and severe threat to the US as well as to Somalia and the region. The view of Eritrea of both Assistant Secretary Frazer and Deputy Assistant Secretary Whelan was certainly more gloomy. They drew attention to the activities of Eritrea, and its assault on the integrity of the UN, with Ms. Whelan noting that if UNMEE was prevented from taking out its equipment then Eritrea would receive a “windfall” of military value. They pointed out that Eritrea was pursuing a strategy of fomenting instability in the region, undermining nearly all efforts towards dialogue and reconciliation, most notably, said Ms. Frazer, in Somalia and Sudan. Ms. Frazer was scathing about human rights in Eritrea, saying that the people of Eritrea, fifteen years after independence, deserved better.

 

The testimony of the government officials, including the  Assistant Administrator for USAID Africa, Katherine Almquist, made it clear the US Government has a rather more coherent policy towards the Horn of Africa and indeed a rather more accurate and balanced view than that demonstrated by the views of Lynn Fredriksson, Advocacy Director for Africa, Amnesty International USA, or Professor David Shinn of George Washington University. Ms. Fredriksson’s testimony, of course, concentrated on human rights, arguing for humanitarian and human rights to be at the centre of US policy. It was, incidentally, clear from Ms. Frazer’s testimony that these issues remain of great concern to the State Department. As on previous occasions, Ms. Fredriksson failed to strike any balance in evaluation of the evidence she adduced; her flights into political comment, notably on the Ethiopian Eritrean border issue, remain seriously inaccurate. Like Professor Shinn, she is either unaware that Ethiopia accepted the Boundary Commission’s Decisions in full well over three years ago, or, as appears likely, has accepted Eritrean claims without bothering to investigate their accuracy. Ethiopia has not called for further negotiations on the border or for any re-examination of the EEBC’s ruling. It has suggested dialogue to proceed to demarcation in line with international practice, and for the normalization of relations. Eritrea has refused. Ethiopia has also demanded the restoration of the Agreement on Cessation of Hostilities, including the integrity of the Temporary Security Zone, persistently violated by Eritrea over several years, and the restoration of UNMEE. Ms. Fredriksson manages to ignore all this merely, and inaccurately, referring to the UN Secretary-General “temporarily disbanding UNMEE”.

 

Ms. Fredriksson has a habit, now notorious, of accepting all accusations against Ethiopian troops as true, whether in Somalia or in the Somali Regional State. In fact, she does note at one point (with reference to attacks on civilians) that Amnesty International is not actually in a position to fully evaluate the incidents reported. Indeed, Ms. Fredriksson makes no effort whatever to attempt such evaluation, despite growing evidence, including the testimony from other witnesses at the hearing that the political situation in Mogadishu and Somalia is improving, though no one denies humanitarian problems still remain very serious. Ms. Fredriksson goes into substantial detail of claims against the Ethiopian or TFG forces, but almost her only reference to the activities of anti-government armed groups (she makes no mention of al-Shabaab or terrorist activities in Mogadishu) is that there is a clear reluctance by people to refer to their activities. She puts this down, quite rightly, to fear. However, she has, presumably deliberately, failed to make contact with the many people who are prepared to talk about al-Shabaab and the methods and activities of anti-government groups. The evidence is there. It is just ignored by Ms. Fredriksson. In fact, Ms. Fredriksson seldom if ever attempts to evaluate the source of the evidence she quotes or its reliability. If it is anti-Ethiopian it is acceptable. 

 

Professor Shinn makes similar errors, arguing against all the evidence, which is freely available, that the situation is arguably worse than during the period of Islamic Courts’ control. He also argues against all evidence that al-Shabaab is gaining strength. More accurately he sees the appointment of Prime Minister Nur Hassan as a positive development. He also doubts whether the opposition ARS might be prepared to make peace, before the departure of Ethiopian troops, without mentioning that the ARS is based in Eritrea, or that Ethiopia has made it clear it wishes to withdraw its troops as soon as  AMISOM is fully deployed or a UN peacekeeping force can be brought in. Neither AMISOM nor possible UN options rate a mention with Professor Shinn. He would, however, encourage the US government to work closely with Ethiopia to encourage the TFG to become a government of national unity. It is, of course, already doing so. Professor Shinn sees US policy as obsessed with terrorism, and claims that all governments in the region give lip-service to countering it, though he adds that with the exception of Ethiopia their support for this is not always convincing.

 

Throughout her testimony, Ms. Fredriksson persistently accepts any evidence that is critical of Ethiopia’s security forces while ignoring anything that might mitigate such claims. In referring to the riots of June and November 2005 in Addis Ababa (which have after all been the subject of an official enquiry) she itemizes the numbers of civilians killed and wounded and adds “Six police officers were also killed”. She might have mentioned the more than 330 police officers also wounded in what were far from peaceful political demonstrations. That does not excuse the deaths, but it does put them in a rather more valid context. Similarly, when referring to the Somali Regional State, she provides a list of claims of government activities, including mass arrests, rape, etc, and then merely adds a line that the ONLF has “reportedly assassinated some civilian officials.” As Ms. Fredriksson is fully aware that remark grossly understates the activities of the ONLF which has over the last year or so burnt numerous villages, assassinated dozens of government officials and civilian elders and other critics and opponents of the ONLF, planted land-mines to blow up civilian vehicles and commercial trucks, thrown bombs into public gatherings and in hotels and restaurants. These are not merely “reported”, they are well known facts, all of which Ms. Fredriksson ignores. She even refers to the attack of the ONLF on the Abole oil installation as “reportedly” killing 65 Ethiopian and 6 Chinese workers, as if there was some doubt about what was a cold-blooded massacre, with men and women killed in bed or lining up for breakfast when they were mown down.        

 

Nobody would deny that the human rights record of Eritrea is appalling (probably the worst in Africa today). Others have described it rather more strongly than Ms. Fredriksson. She, however, suggests little more than the US Government should “press” the Government of Eritrea to release prisoners of conscience (of which there are known to be many thousands).  Professor Shinn also soft-pedals his criticisms of Eritrea whose internal situation merely “leaves much to be desired”. His disingenuous comments on Eritrea get little further than referring to its “effectively ending the ability of UNMEE to operate in Eritrea” and a comment that it would have been an unwise decision to add Eritrea to the list of states supporting terrorism. One of Professor Shinn’s oddest remarks is to suggest that the US close relations with Ethiopia have contributed directly to a worsening of relations with Eritrea, suggesting that he has no understanding of Eritrean politics or the personality of President Issayas. The inaccuracies render useless most of the suggestions made in respect to Eritrea by Professor Shinn or Ms. Fredriksson. 

 

Professor Shinn does note that Eritrea supports a number of anti-government Ethiopian groups. He equated these groups with the Eritrean opposition allegedly backed by the Ethiopian government, but these can hardly be compared. As Professor Shinn is well aware, Eritrea provides significant quantities of arms and money to the ONLF and the OLF, as well as training hundreds of fighters for both organizations, as indeed both Jendayi Frazer and Theresa Whelan noted. In 2003/4, for example, Eritrea organized as many as fourteen cross-border incursions of OLF into western Ethiopia. It is difficult to see how downplaying Eritrean activity to this extent can be squared with Professor Shinn’s immediately following comment that among the most serious threats to regional and US security in the region are the activities of the ONLF and the OLF and the possible resumption of conflict in eastern Sudan.. Eritrea was also the instigator of trouble in eastern Sudan before forcing the Eastern Front to the negotiating table last year. Any resumption of conflict in eastern Sudan will be caused by Eritrea.  

 

In sharp contrast to Assistant Secretary Frazer and Deputy Assistant Secretary Whelan, Professor Shinn, like Ms. Fredriksson deliberately minimizes the role Eritrea is playing in the region and in Somalia. This is a very dangerous message to have been peddling for the hearing and for the region. At the same time, in his list of priorities, Professor Shinn puts Somalia at the top while ignoring the fact (highlighted by Frazer and Whelan, and indeed by regional authorities and even the AU) that the major contributor to regional violence is Eritrea. This repeated failure to link evidence and comment suggests that Professor Shinn gave little thought to his testimony. It certainly seriously limits the value of his remarks which are usually more incisive and accurate. Overall, despite the apparent efforts of Professor Shinn or Ms. Fredriksson, the hearings failed to provide any real support for Senator Feingold’s view of a deteriorating situation in the region or of a US policy dangerously adrift.   

 

  • Foreign Minister Seyoum has expressed the government’s commitment to provide support for the full realization of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) in Sudan. On Tuesday, Minister Seyoum held discussions with Sir Derek Plumb, newly appointed chairman of the Assessment and Evaluation Commission of the CPA. Sir Derek was in Addis Ababa for discussions with Ethiopian government on ways in which the CPA can be fully implemented by all parties concerned. Minister Seyoum expressed his appreciation of Sir Derek’s decision to carry out consultations before accepting the position. He emphasized that the failure to implement the CPA would pose major challenges for the region as well as Sudan. Minister Seyoum also noted that the solution to the recent hiccups in the National Unity Government proved that the two parties were capable of solving their problems. The discussions also emphasized that both parties have the responsibility to work together for full implementation of the CPA rather than blame each other when difficulties arose. The CPA will determine the fate of Sudan; both parties should work hard for implementation. Sir Derek also held talks with AU officials. An AU Ministerial Committee will be visiting Juba and Khartoum at the end of March to look at how both parties can move forward in implementation of the CPA. 

 

  • The two day 11th summit of the 57 member Organization of the Islamic Conference (OIC) opened in Dakar, Senegal, on Thursday. According to the text of his speech, General Secretary, Ekmeleddin Ihsanoglu, speaking of Somalia said “the presence of Ethiopian troops is considered to be an obstacle to peace and reconciliation in Somalia and therefore responsible for the current deadlock”. It is not clear if the speech was delivered in this form, but the comment about Ethiopian troops incorporated in the text is outrageous, and if delivered, highly irresponsible. Equally, the General Secretary said that he had urgently requested Member States to contribute to AMISOM which is in Mogadishu to keep the peace, currently being guaranteed by Ethiopian troops. It is not clear how the General Secretary would, or could, defend the contradiction. Equally, however, it is quite possible the matter might require a formal demarche on the part of Ethiopia.

 

  • The Country Reports on Human Rights Practices 2007 were released by the Bureau of Democracy, Human Rights, and Labor of the US Department of State this week, and the report on Ethiopia contains a lot of criticism. This is to be expected as Ethiopia itself readily admits that human rights are a work in progress, and there is much to be done, building on the significant achievements over the last several years. US Ambassador, Donald Yamamoto, said on Thursday that the Ethiopian Government’s efforts geared towards safeguarding the human rights of its citizens were quite encouraging, and the Government was committed to ensuring a democratic system in the country. What, however, is disappointing is that the Report spends so much effort talking about events in 2005 which arose following the elections that year when some groups attempted to overthrow the Government through street violence. The perpetrators were duly brought before the court and found guilty of most of the charges against them. Then, through proper application of the law, and traditional Ethiopian methods of mediation they were given pardons by the Government following their admission of guilt and their request for pardon. These events conclusively closed that chapter with all sides taking important lessons from the tragic events of the post-election violence. The country has moved on, and has significantly strengthened institutions of democratic governance. The timing of the Report is unfortunate, issued when political parties are actively campaigning for the upcoming elections next month. And all this is happening with the backdrop of continued economic progress in the country. The Country Report on Ethiopia appears to be dwelling on events in 2005 in an effort to paint a darker picture of the country. It makes baseless allegations of about political prisoners, killings and other violations. The actions of Ethiopian law enforcement agencies are based on the law. Ethiopia has its own system of ensuring that allegations of human rights abuses are addressed. These avenues include the regular courts at district, Federal and Supreme Court level, the Ethiopian Human Rights Commission, the Office of the Ombudsman and where appropriate the House of Peoples’ Representatives. The Bureau often appears simply to parrot allegations made by various opposition groups with political objectives. It introduces political classifications that do not reflect reality on the ground, diverting consideration from what is intended to be its main aim of promoting human rights. Ethiopia will continue to express its displeasure to the State Department about this routine and unhelpful practice of the Bureau, and underline the need to correct what appears to be a deep rooted bias against Ethiopia.

 

  • State Minister Tekeda Alemu yesterday met Mr. Zhang Yangwu, Charge d’Affaires of the Embassy of China in Addis Ababa at Mr. Yangwu’s request. The discussion focused on concerns that China has in connection with a referendum to be held by Taiwan on the issue of joining the UN under the name of Taiwan. The referendum is scheduled for 22 March 2008 and is planned to coincide with parliamentary elections. The State Minister assured the Chinese Charge d’Affaires that Ethiopia’s support for China was firm. Ethiopia remains firmly opposed to all efforts, including this latest attempt, to undermine the principle of one China.