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The
Fifteenth Assembly of the Heads of State and Government of the
African Union in Kampala July 25-27
The theme of the
15th Assembly of the African Union Heads of State and
Government in Kampala was “Promoting Maternal, Infant and Child
Health and Development in Africa”. The choice of theme was
appropriate as it is five years since the Maputo Plan of Action was
adopted. This called for at least 15% of budgets to be spent on
healthcare, but progress towards achieving the Millennium
Development Goals on the reduction of infant and maternal mortality
has not kept up. The MDG’s are due in 2015. The
Summit reaffirmed previous commitments and undertook to
launch the Campaign on Accelerated Reduction of Maternal Mortality
in Africa (CARMMA) by the African Union continentally and
nationally, and to strengthen health services and systems in these
areas. It undertook to provide sustainable funding to meet the
Maputo
target, and called on the Global Fund for the Fight against
HIV/AIDS, Malaria and TB to create a new window to fund Maternal and
Child Health. The Heads of State and Government appealed to
development partners and donors to replenish the Global Fund during
its October 2010 meeting and earmark funds for Maternal and Child
Health. They agreed to set up a monitoring and evaluation framework
at country level to monitor progress.
The Summit also
spent a good deal of time on separate topics including Somalia and,
following the Kampala bombings earlier in the month, on terrorism,
as well as considering other items, including two items proposed by
Libya which were rejected by the Assembly. One was on the suggestion
that the mid-year AU Summits should be held in Sirte in Libya,
rather than rotate as at present. The second was to reconsider the
decisions taken on the timetable for changing the AU Commission into
an Authority, agreed at Sirte last year.
In the debate on
the Report of the Commission on implementation of the decisions of
the International Criminal Court (ICC), the Heads of State and
Government reiterated their commitment to fight impunity and to use
African mechanisms to this effect. The ICC’s request to open a
liaison office in
Addis Ababa,
an issue between the Commission and the ICC, was discussed, and
rejected. The ICC was felt to display an egregious condescending
attitude and unjust tendencies towards African states. Some states
which are parties to the Rome Statute were concerned over balancing
their obligations to the AU and to the Rome Statute. It was
suggested that the hybrid court of Sudanese and African judges
recommended by the Panel on Darfur would provide the best
alternative for dealing with possible Darfur crimes. In its
decisions, the Summit expressed its disappointment that the UN
Security Council had not replied positively to the AU’s request to
defer any proceeding against President Bashir. It reiterated its
decision that AU member states should not co-operate with the ICC
over President Bashir and requested members to honor their
commitments under the Constitutive Act of the African Union.
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The
debate and decisions on Somalia
Prior to the
Assembly session when the Heads of State and Government considered
the issue of Somalia, Chairperson Ping, addressing the Executive
Council, had identified the agreement signed between Ahlu Suna wal
Jama’a and the TFG as an encouraging step. He took the opportunity
to emphasize the need to take bold political and legal measures to
significantly enhance the strength, resources and equipment of
AMISOM.
In the Assembly
session on Somalia, the AU Commission Chairperson's report was
followed by a briefing from the President of the TFG, Sheikh Sharif
Sheikh Ahmed. He began by condemning the recent barbaric acts of
terrorism in Kampala before elaborating on the current situation in
Somalia, on the need for international community support for the TFG
and its security institutions as well as for AMISOM in order to deal
with the current scourge of terrorism in Somalia. He made it clear
that the struggle in Somalia, as indeed the IGAD Summit of July 5th
had underlined was now a fight between the people of Somalia and
international terrorists.
President Sheikh
Sharif identified to the Assembly the activities of certain
countries, which for reasons unknown to him, supported Al-Shabaab
terrorists financially and logistically. He pointed out that Eritrea
was at the forefront of support for the terrorists financially,
through training and in providing logistics. He formally requested
Eritrea to desist from providing such support. President Sheikh
Sharif recently attended the latest meeting of CEN-SAD in Njamena
which was also attended by Eritrea’s President Isaias. Although
attempts were made to bring the two together, the effort did not
produce any results, and apparently the Eritrean President was
abusive to the President of Somalia. In response to Somalia’s
claims, the Eritrean delegate suggested that there were no witnesses
to support the TFG’s accusation that Eritrea was supporting Al-Shabaab
and Hizbul Islam. It was, however, clear from the debate and the
subsequent affirmations that the Assembly was not convinced by
Eritrea’s arguments.
After debate, the
Assembly of Heads of State and Government reaffirmed its full
support for the Transitional Federal Government of Somalia. It
strongly condemned the attacks and other acts of violence
perpetrated by Al-Shabaab and other terrorist groups against the TFG,
the Somali people and AMISOM. Condemning the terrorist acts
perpetrated on Uganda, the Assembly called on member states and the
entire international community to isolate and take all required
measures against individuals, entities and States engaged in
terrorist acts and whose actions are undermining the peace and
reconciliation process in Somalia, as well as regional stability and
international security.
The Assembly
encouraged the Transitional Federal Institutions (TFIs) to enhance
their cohesion, and work purposefully towards national
reconciliation and unity among Somalis, in line with the Djibouti
Agreement of August 2009. In this respect the Assembly welcomed the
signing and implementation of the Agreement reached in Addis Ababa,
on the15th March, between the TFG and Ahlu Suna wal Jama’a, as well
as the Agreement signed with the Somali Region of Puntland, signed
by the TFG on 12th April.
As on previous
occasions, the Assembly expressed its appreciation to the troop
contributing countries of AMISOM, namely Uganda and Burundi, for
their invaluable contribution to peace in Somalia and for the
sacrifices being made. It encouraged the ongoing effort to build up
the capacity of the Somali security forces, and endorsed the
decisions contained in the communiqué of the 15th
Extraordinary Session of IGAD. It deeply appreciated the regional
initiative, organized under Africa’s peace and security
architecture, to enable AMISOM to reach its authorized strength of
8100 troops. The Assembly mandated the Commission to initiate the
planning for the new phases of AMISOM deployment as immediately as
possible.
In accordance
with the decisions of IGAD, the AU Assembly, recognizing the
imperative of political engagement in Somalia, also requested the
Chairperson of the Commission to appoint a High Level Personality,
to galvanize international support and attention for
Somalia
and for the engagement of the population in governance processes, in
order to enhance the legitimacy of the TFG. The Assembly reaffirmed
that the Djibouti process remains the sole basis for peace and
reconciliation in Somalia, and urged the TFG to continue the efforts
that it has been making to broaden its political base in the context
of the legitimacy of the TFIs, to include all those who embrace
peace and renounce violence. The Assembly further reiterated its
call to the larger international community and the United Nations
Security Council, in particular, to play their rightful role. This
should include the transformation of AMISOM into a UN Peacekeeping
Mission, and the mobilization of resources commensurate with the
magnitude of the challenges now facing Somalia and the region.
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The
debate on Terrorism
Inevitably, the
scourge of terrorism and the destruction it is causing to innocent
lives and property across the African continent was an important
topic at the Summit. The Assembly condemned most strongly the attack
that was carried out on 11th July, in Kampala, by Al-Shabaab, an
attack which resulted in the death and injury of so many innocent
civilians, as an attack against the entire people of Africa. The
Assembly underscored the need to take all necessary measures to
apprehend the perpetrators and the masterminds of this shocking
atrocity with a view to bringing them to justice. The Assembly
expressed its condolences to, and its solidarity with, the Uganda
Government and the families of the victims.
Expressing
serious concern over the worsening of the scourge of terrorism and
the threat it poses to peace, security and stability in Africa, the
Assembly strongly condemned all terrorist attacks perpetrated in the
continent and expressed its determination to fight any form
terrorism. It underscored the need for renewed efforts and increased
mobilization to combat terrorism. It requested the Commission to
expeditiously submit to the Peace and Security Council concrete
recommendations aimed at strengthening the effectiveness of
Africa's
actions for the prevention and combating of terrorism.
The Assembly
adopted a decision on the prevention and combating of terrorism. It
has requested all African States to work closely together, directly
and through the relevant organs of the AU, to implement enhanced
measures for cooperation, and mutual legal assistance and
coordination between security services, in order to boost Africa's
collective action against terrorism. The Commission is requested to
carry out all necessary consultations and initiate appropriate
measures to mobilize the wide support and effective contribution of
the international community towards fighting terrorism in Africa.
These should include cutting off of financing resources, and an end
to the payment of ransoms for the seizure of ships or individuals
The Commission is asked to report regularly on the status of the
fight against terrorism in Africa and on the levels of cooperation
available.
The Assembly was
virtually unanimous in its condemnation of terrorism and its effects
in Somalia and elsewhere. The Eritrean delegation did not disagree
but earlier in the debate on Somalia, it had suggested that what has
been going on in Somalia should not be associated with international
terrorism. If this had been the case, the situation in Somalia would
be worse than Pakistan and Afghanistan. The Eritrean delegation’s
apparent suggestion in the Somali debate that the TFG should
negotiate with Al-Shabaab was dismissed. Indeed, the resolution on
terrorism included strong condemnation of Al-Shabaab, and the
Assembly’s insistence that the TFG should endeavor to bring on board
all those who embraced peace and renounced violence, made it clear
there could be no negotiations with Al-Shabaab.
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The
US holds a consultative meeting on Somalia in Kampala
A consultative
meeting organized by the US, and moderated by Ambassador Johnnie
Carson, the US Assistant Secretary of State for Africa, was held on
26 July, on the sidelines of the AU Summit in Kampala, Uganda.
Present were the Presidents of Uganda, Kenya, Djibouti, Somalia and
Tanzania, the Prime Minister of Ethiopia, the Chairperson of the
African Union, and the Deputy Secretary-General of the UN.
Ambassador Carson, in his introductory remarks, welcomed
participants to the meeting and expressed his gratitude for their
attendance. He extended his special thanks to the government of
Uganda for allowing the meeting to happen and for its hospitality,
and took the opportunity to condemn the barbaric acts of terrorism
in Kampala and extend his sincere condolences to the people and
government of Uganda. The reason for the meeting, he said, was that
the situation in Somalia was dire. The country was at a tipping
point with Al-Shabaab gaining ground and demonstrating increased
confidence by extending its terrorist attacks beyond Somalia.
Developments in Somalia were worsening daily and they were a serious
challenge to all. If the international community did not act, and
act quickly, we would all suffer a serious setback. Ambassador
Carson said it was therefore necessary to identify those who can and
will contribute logistically and financially, as well as provide
peacekeeping troops in the effort to strengthen AMISOM and the
Somali institutions of governance. No one can resolve the crisis
alone, he added. We must encourage all those who can contribute in
this effort. Ambassador Carson mentioned that the US government had
provided US$170 million to AMISOM and US$25 million to the TFG. This
was not just a promise, it had been delivered.
President
Museveni emphasized that the developments in Somalia and the need to
take actions were not something new. He remembered the similar
situation in the DRC in1960, when Patrice Lumumba was killed,
resulting in a collapse of the central state and secession of
Katanga.
This brought about the intervention of the UN and Congo was put back
together again. More recently, Congo was rescued once more by the
UN. This is one way of resolving such problems. When Ugandan troops
were first deployed in Somalia, President Museveni said, it was
envisaged that they, and AMISOM, would be working with local
partners who would eventually organize themselves sufficiently so
progress would be achieved on the ground. It appears that this is
not happening. So the way to move forward, now, was to deploy enough
forces to reverse the situation. The Somali people have to organize
themselves, and the international community will have to provide the
pay and contribute the equipment in support. The President reminded
donors that a piecemeal approach would not solve the problem of
Somalia. Compared to what the UN has spent in the DRC, what is
needed in Somalia was miniscule. In any case, even if the cost was
one billion dollars to sanitize Somalia, wasn’t it worth it?
President Museveni reminded the meeting that if Somalia had been a
direct neighbor of Uganda and carried out the bombings in Kampala
then Uganda would have gone in by itself with out asking anyone's
help. Now on Somalia,
Africa
has a responsibility to assist those neighboring states which have
the most responsibility to do whatever they can to address the
challenges created by Al-Shabaab.
Prime Minister
Meles agreed with Ambassador Carson's gloomy assessment of the
current situation in Somalia and that Somalia was at a tipping
point. He also agreed with President Museveni that a larger force
was needed to address the threat posed by Al-Shabaab. The local TFG
forces and the force that AMISOM has currently deployed were not
sufficient to address the challenges Somalia was facing. There was
no question about the capacity of AMISOM to prevent any takeover of
Mogadishu by Al-Shabaab, and defend itself when attacked. It could
not, however, defeat Al-Shabaab. However, using AMISOM as a central
pillar and mobilizing additional forces would provide for the defeat
of Al-Shabaab. At the same time, the ultimate goal of stabilizing
Somalia rests, of course, on Somalis. AMISOM cannot continue
indefinitely. Prime Minister Meles stressed that the donors should
contribute financially and that all the various training measures
should be coordinated and based on what the TFG wants and needs. The
trained forces must also be allocated with stipends otherwise they
might switch sides for obvious financial reasons. Prime Minister
Meles, reminding the meeting of what had happened in Burundi, said
the critical shortage of resources could be addressed by turning
AMISOM into a UN Peacekeeping Force. This, he emphasized, was the
way to avert the slide to hell in Somalia. Unless the TFG and its
security institutions are assisted there could not be any
sustainable solution for Somalia. AMISOM could not be a permanent
fire brigade. Prime Minister Meles also raised the issue of the
failure of the TFG to receive no more than 30% of promised
assistance. Reportedly, 70% of the amount is virtually lost in
administration by those who have the responsibility for the
distribution of assistance. He suggested this should change and the
TFG should be directly supported if progress was to be achieved. At
the same time he called on members of the TFG to stop squabbling
over a mere carcass and to appeal to the people of
Somalia
to isolate Al-Shabaab. The international community should be very
clear that the hardcore Al-Shabaab elements cannot be negotiated
with. They must be defeated. Certainly one can work on how to
incorporate “fellow travelers”, but there has to be clarity on this
matter in a number of states. He warned of the consequences of a
proliferation of initiatives. He underlined Ethiopia’s willingness
to help in any form other than the deployment of troops again. He
concluded by stressing that any takeover by Al-Shabaab and any
threats to AMISOM could not be tolerated.
President Kibaki
unhesitatingly called for swift action. Enough has been said about
Somalia, he pointed out. What was needed now was concrete action.
The Presidents of Djibouti and Tanzania also spoke at length on the
need for resilience, action, and clarity on what to do in Somalia
and the necessity of finding the necessary resolve to address the
threats posed by Al-Shabaab. President Sheikh Sharif elaborated on
the crisis that Somalia was passing through and on the scourge of
terrorism that was posing the danger to Somalia, to the region and
beyond. He said Somalis were not proud of having to ask for the
support of the international community, but the situation and the
composition of the enemy and the support it was getting from those
bent on destabilizing the region, forced the TFG to request help.
All speakers
emphasized the need for quick action in Somalia and requested any
who might assist to do their part. Equally, the TFG should do more;
it must avoid the problems caused by its own divisions. The danger
posed by Al-Shabaab was underlined by a recent publication which
made clear its grandiose schemes. The meeting agreed on the need to
give the peacekeeping force enough of a mandate to enforce peace.
Coordination of all the various efforts and the need for
sustainability was also emphasized. The meeting agreed that the
Somali problem had global ramifications and suggested specific
actions to be taken. It was agreed to send joint missions to various
countries in the next couple of weeks to request financial,
logistical and other support for the TFG, and troop contributions
from those countries that have demonstrated the capacity and
willingness to strengthen AMISOM forces. It was agreed that a
roadmap for action for the remaining transitional period of the TFG
should be formulated. The need for coordinated action to address the
twin threat of piracy and terrorism, through the provision of
sustainable support to the TFG and AMISOM, was underlined.
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HSGOC
(NEPAD) and CAHOSCC pre Summit meetings in Kampala.
NEPAD, now
the Heads of State and Government Orientation Committee (HSGOC) held
its 23rd Meeting on 24 July before the Summit, and subsequently
Prime Minister Meles as Chairperson of the HSGOC presented a report
to the Assembly which was fully endorsed. Last February’s
Summit approved the integration of NEPAD into the structures
and processes of the African Union, including the establishment of
the NEPAD Planning and Coordination Agency (NPCA), and the change of
name to the Orientation Committee, which now operates as a
sub-committee of the AU Assembly. The meeting was addressed by
Gordon Brown, former UK Prime Minister and a representative of the
Canadian Prime Minister on
Africa's Economic
Partnerships and the outcome of this year’s G8 session.
There were
four key agenda issues for the HSGOC meeting: progress on the NPCA;
its activities between February and June; the promotion of regional
infrastructure to accelerate Africa’s economic growth and
development; and on Africa’s engagement with the G8 and G20 groups.
The meeting noted the NPCA’s adoption of AU rules, regulations and
practices and the harmonization between the AU Commission and NPCA.
It endorsed the NPCA's activity report and requested it to scale up
support to AU Member States on agriculture and food security by
providing technical guidelines on access to global financing. In the
discussion on the promotion of Regional Infrastructure, the
committee noted that the primary responsibility for implementing
NEPAD priority programs and projects lies with National Governments
and Regional Economic Communities (RECs). The Orientation Committee
agreed to set up a High-Level Sub-Committee on Infrastructure
comprising South Africa (Chair), Algeria, Benin, Republic of Congo,
Egypt, Nigeria, Rwanda and Senegal, tasked with prioritizing and
consolidating infrastructure sub-sector programs and projects. The
sub-committee is requested to report to the next meeting of the
HSGOC in January 2011. The Orientation Committee welcomed the G8
Muskoka Initiative on Maternal, Newborn and Under-5 Child Health,
the G20 enlargement of
Africa's
participation to two seats, and the G20 inclusion of development of
low-income countries in its mandate. The Committee recommended that
the Chairpersons of the AU and of the Orientation Committee itself
be designated as Africa's representatives in the G20. It called for
Africa to participate at all levels of the consultations and
decision-making processes of the G20. It expressed its support for
additional individual African Countries to become members of the
G20.
The HSGOC
welcomed the inclusion of low-income countries and Africa in the
mandate of G20 and the establishment of the Working Group as
positive developments. It recognized that the NEPAD program provided
a sound and adequate framework within which Africa can pursue its
partnership with G20. It reiterated the critical need for delivery
on commitments by development partners for the sustainability of
partnerships. The meeting underscored the paramount importance of
the partnership principle of mutual accountability and welcomed the
mutual accountability mechanisms being put in place within Africa's
partnership processes. It emphasized that the Mutual Review of
Development Effectiveness (MRDE) should form the primary basis of
Africa's monitoring of G8 partnership commitments.
Prime
Minister Meles’ report on HSGOC/NEPAD was followed by a heated
debate which subsequently ended with the Heads of State and
Government expressing full support for the excellent work done by
the Ethiopian Prime Minister. The President of Senegal who had
originally, raised some issues about the report, said he was fully
satisfied by the explanations given by Prime Minister Meles.
The
Committee of Heads of State and Government on Climate Change (CAHOSCC)
met the same day. The opening session was addressed by AU
Chairperson and President of Malawi, Mr. Bingu Wa Mutharika; the
President of Mexico, Mr. Felipe Calderon; the Chairperson of the AU
Commission, Dr. Jean Ping; and the Commissioner for Rural
Development and Agriculture, Mrs. Rhoda Peace. President Bingu Wa
Mutharika, emphasizing that climate change is one of the most
challenging issues that needs to be addressed collectively and
congratulated Prime Minister Meles on his nomination by the UN
Secretary-General as Co-Chair of the High-Level Advisory Panel on
Climate Change Financing. Dr Ping observed that Africa with its
united leadership is now being taken seriously. He thanked Prime
Minister Meles for his leadership in the climate change
negotiations, and reminded the meeting that it was vital that the
developed countries met their historical responsibilities and
fulfilled their financial pledges. President Calderon of Mexico said
his main reason for attending the Summit was to pursue an inclusive
process and to understand what the main obstacles were. Mrs. Rhoda
Peace informed CAHOSCC of the outcome of the ministerial meeting in
Bamako in June on setting up a single negotiation structure at
ministerial and experts’ level. The CAHOSCC endorsed the ministerial
recommendations.
The CAHOSCC
reviewed the process of negotiations leading up to Cancun in Mexico.
It felt that significant momentum has been lost since Copenhagen;
and Mr. Calderon said that the majority leader of the United States
Senate had indicated that there wouldn’t be any decision on climate
change this summer by the US. At the same time, the CAHOSCC is
convinced of the need to push for an ambitious agreement in Cancun,
including a deal for the management and maintenance of the Congo
basin, and for a final and binding agreement in
South Africa.
The CAHOSCC also made clear the need to reach agreement on long-term
climate financing based on the Copenhagen Accord, and this financing
had to be predictable, accessible and real. Two separate funds
should be established, under the African Union Commission Board of
Directors, each amounting to US$150 billion. Management would be by
the African Development Bank. The first fund would be utilized for
investment in clean energy on the basis of concessional loans; the
second would be for adaptation, and be disbursed on a grant basis.
Prime
Minister Meles subsequently presented the outcome of the CAHOSCC
meeting to the Assembly. The Assembly commended the efforts of the
African negotiators under the leadership of CAHOSCC in promoting the
African Common Position on Climate Change. It endorsed the
recommendations of CAHOSCC on the streamlined single negotiation
structure at Ministerial and Experts’ levels to ensure effective
coordination of negotiations on climate change prior to the 16th
Conference of Parties in Cancun, Mexico later this year and the 17th
Conference in South Africa next year. Algeria will serve as
Coordinator at Ministerial level, together with Mali, in its
capacity as current Chairperson of the African Ministerial
Conference on Environment; and the Democratic Republic of Congo and
Nigeria
as Co-Coordinators at the Experts’ level. The Assembly accepted
recommendations for South Africa to continue in CAHOSCC, as well as
the inclusion of
Congo
in its capacity as the Chairperson of the African Group of Technical
Negotiators, and agreed that the CAHOSCC should hold a meeting
before Cancun, Mexico in December.
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Eritrea
and the African Union
Eritrea’s decision to send a high level delegation to the 15th
AU Summit raised expectations that it would associate itself with
other members of the African Union in the fight against terrorism
and in helping to ensure peace, security and stability in the region
and the continent at large. The move followed its acceptance of
Qatar mediation and a peace agreement with Djibouti. Many thought,
and indeed hoped, that this lifting of Eritrea’s self-imposed
suspension from the activities of the AU, and the break from its
previously near-hermetically sealed isolation from the outside world
might imply a real change in policy.
Disappointingly, what
the Eritrean delegation demonstrated at the Summit in Kampala was
nothing of the kind. The delegation’s actions confirmed what many
diplomats, sceptical of Asmara’s renewed involvement in AU’s
activities, suspected - that Eritrea is only making cosmetic changes
in policy following the UN Security Council decision to impose
sanctions last December over its efforts at destabilization in the
region, its involvement in Somalia in collaboration with Al Shabaab
and other terrorist groups and its occupation of Djiboutian
territory.
At the Summit, AU
member states were nearly unanimous in their determination to
provide
AMISOM with more troops and greater financial and logistical
resources. Eritrea was in fact the only exception. The Heads of
State and Government also made it very clear they wanted to see
AMISOM with an expanded mandate which could allow it to take the
offensive against Al-Shabaab and other terrorist groups as well
strengthen the TFG. Eritrea’s Foreign Minister, Osman Saleh, however
denied the presence of terrorist groups in Somalia and
hypocritically advocated that priority should be given to political
solutions. An appropriate response was given to that proposal when
the Ethiopian delegation said political solutions should not be used
as a cover for efforts designed to support terrorist like Al-Shabaab.
In fact, the Eritrean delegation not only opposed the Summit’s
decisions on Somalia but also played a very negative role on some of
the items which attracted lengthy exchanges of views, most
particularly on those items introduced by the Libyan delegation.
It is
difficult to avoid the conclusion that there has been no change of
mind by Eritrea, no decision to play a positive role in AU’s
activities or in the AU’s efforts to ensure peace, security and
stability in the Horn of Africa or the continent at large. Those who
were expecting that Eritrea was about to change policy and behave in
a more normal way will have been disappointed.
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“Constructive
disengagement” and the abandonment of Somalia to Al-Shabaab
Surprisingly, even the shock and horror of the suicide bombings in
Kampala haven’t affected those analysts who have been arguing that
it would be better to pull out all peacekeepers from Mogadishu, let
the Government of Somalia collapse, and Al-Shabaab and Al Qaeda take
over the country. Bronwyn Bruton, in a report for the Council of
Foreign Relations in Washington, called for the US to adopt what she
called a strategy of “constructive disengagement”. The meaning of
‘constructive’ and the meaning of ‘disengagement’ are clear enough,
but it’s when you put the two together that they become an oxymoron;
others might interpret the phrase rather more crudely. It is in fact
simply meaningless, though it is clear what Ms. Bruton intends to
mean: the withdrawal of any and all US involvement in Somalia and
the abandonment of the Government of Somalia. The bombings in
Kampala have made no difference to her views, reiterated in
an article the New York Times [“In Somalia, Talk to the Enemy,
24.7.2010]. The US, she argues, can best serve Somalia by allowing
its government to disappear, and Al-Shabaab, now known to be largely
controlled by a small coterie of Al Qaeda operatives, to take
control.
Ms. Bruton
claims that Al-Shabaab is a much divided organization and will
collapse in the face of growing opposition from clan and business
militias. That is an assumption that is difficult to support, and in
the meantime her policy will allow the people of Somalia to fall
under the control of what she herself describes as “ a vicious mob
of teenage radicals” who are “clearly getting guidance from Al Qaeda”.
She notes Al-Shabaab has “proudly” claimed responsibility for the
Kampala bombings, and goes on to accept that it is led by extremists
fresh from the battlefields of Afghanistan, Pakistan and Iraq, has
recruited “thousands of Somali children into its militias and uses
them to brutally impose a foreign ideology on the religiously
moderate Somali people. The ‘child judges’ as they are known are
responsible for many of Al-Shabaab’s worst human rights violations,
including stoning and amputations.”
It is in
the face of this scenario that Ms. Bruton returns to her suggested
“constructive disengagement”, which in fact looks to spread this
horrifying behavior even more widely. Al-Shabaab currently controls
less about a third of Somalia. Ms. Bruton wants to hand over the
rest of the country to it! The destruction of the Government of
Somalia will mean the imposition of a climate of fear and human
rights abuse over huge areas of Somalia currently free from AL-Shabaab’s
extremism. The fall of Mogadishu will lead to the flight of hundreds
of thousands more IDPs and an even more extensive humanitarian
disaster. Already the international agencies are finding it almost
impossible to cope, not because they have pulled out but because Al-Shabaab
refuses to allow their operations in areas that it controls.
Such a
policy will allow the advance of Al-Shabaab forces into currently
peaceful areas of central Somalia where it will face considerable
resistance from the more moderate Islamic forces of Ahlu Suna wal
Jama’a, an ally and indeed a participant in the TFG. It will then
threaten other essentially peaceful areas to the north east,
Puntland and even Somaliland which has just held a peaceful and
impressive democratic change of government. Al-Shabaab and Al Qaeda
have already made very clear their intention to try to expand their
brand of terrorist extremism across the whole region. Abandoning the
TFG will provide them with a green light. Frankly, it is a truly
terrifying scenario.
Another US
analyst who has recently taken to arguing the same point is Dr.
Peter Pham: “remove the foreign interests, let the cards fall where
they will for the transitional government and you will see Al-Shabaab
beginning to break apart into various factions.”
It’s no
surprise that Al-Shabaab and its supporters have welcomed the
concept of “constructive disengagement”, a concept that would allow
them a free hand in Somalia and in the region. .
In fact,
these arguments are based on a number of inaccurate or untested
assumptions: that Al-Shabaab’s strength is based on anti-foreign
feelings in Somalia (a claim that ignores the fact that Al-Shabaab
appears well before the arrival of Ethiopian troops at the request
of the Somali government); that Al-Shabaab’s current leadership will
be unable to control the organization; that the climate of fear that
it has engendered will break down; or that some Al-Shabaab elements
will be prepared to join another government (begging the question of
how such a government could be established in the wake of the
disappearance of the TFG). There is, of course, no indication
whatever that Al-Shabaab is interested in any element of moderation.
All available evidence is to the contrary.
Of equal
concern is that Ms. Bruton and others apparently have no
understanding of current IGAD or regional policies towards Somalia.
Boosting AMISOM and the security capacity of the TFG are not the
only elements. Capacity building for the TFG, and the TFIs,
constitution drafting in advance of the end of the transitional
period, efforts to expand government support through the peace and
reconciliation process, as indicated by the agreement with Ahlu Suna
wal Jama’a and the agreement with the government of Puntland, are
all elements of IGAD policy.
The TFG has
its own internal problems, of course, and there is a very real need
to resolve its divisions. But as important has been the failure of
the international community to understand the dangers of the
situation in Somalia, to provide properly targeted and sufficient
support to enable the TFG and the TFIs to function effectively. The
international response to the Kampala bombings, and the recent AU
Summit, do however suggest the international community may finally
be closer to understanding the realities of the Somali situation.
These do not involve “constructive disengagement”, abandoning ten
million Somalis to the hands of a “vicious mob of teenage radicals”
controlled by Al Qaeda, or offering up an entire region of the
African continent to the international terrorism.
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