A Week in the Horn

      11/07/2008 

  • Ceasefire comes into effect in Somalia but no progress in ARS talks

  • Post-mortem on the AU Summit

  • Ethiopia, Sudan  – relations still solid  

  • Flag Day celebrates the unity and sovereignty of federal Ethiopia

  • Eritrean obfuscation.

  • Somalia’s Prime Minister, Nur Hassan Hussein ‘Adde’ was in Addis Ababa last weekend, holding talks with Foreign Minister Seyoum. During two meetings, they discussed progress in the peace process, and what needed to done to strengthen security in Somalia. The Prime Minister briefed Minister Seyoum on the progress made towards the establishment of regional administrations in Kismayo and Lower Juba region, and in Mogadishu and Benadir region. Following the successful establishment of an elected administration in Gedo region earlier this year, and in Bay and Bakool last year, the TFG is in the process of establishing similar administrative structures in Lower Juba and Benadir. The Prime Minister was accompanied by Somalia’s Minister of Defense and the Commissioner of Police who were in Ethiopia to attend the completion of training for over 2,000 Somali army and police at the Blatten training camp near Awassa.  Before leaving Addis Ababa, Prime Minister Nur ‘Adde’ told journalists that all Somalis should seize the opportunity created at Djibouti: “the agreement signed in Djibouti is the key and opens the door to peace so anyone can join, any organization opposing the government of today”. He also reiterated that UN forces were needed: “the UN and the international community must provide financial support and deploy peacekeepers without delay so that Ethiopian forces would withdraw in accordance with the agreement.”

According to the agreement signed in Djibouti on 9 June between the TFG and the Alliance for the Re-Liberation of Somalia (ARS) a ceasefire should have come into effect on Wednesday, July 9. Despite claims to the contrary, it did, and it appears the cease fire is largely holding despite the upsurge of violence in the immediately preceding weeks. This included a series of assassinations and attacks by Al-Shabaab, targeting UN and other aid agency personnel, among them even drivers of aid vehicles. The UN’s OCHA in its latest situation report noted that humanitarian access was being limited by “the deliberate targeting” of aid workers including the kidnapping of four workers from the Merka–based INGO, Water for Life. Among those killed was the head of UNDP operations in Somalia, Osman Ali Ahmed, shot as he left a mosque after evening prayers last Sunday. Unusually, Al-Shabaab denied responsibility though UNDP recently donated 30 vehicles to TFG ministries as part of a capacity building program.

Other elements of the Djibouti agreement have yet to make much progress. Under the agreement, two committees were to be set up within two weeks. A Joint Security Committee was to be established to follow up the implementation of security arrangements. A High Level Committee, chaired by the UN, was to follow up on political cooperation between the two sides and concerns over justice and reconciliation. No names have yet been put forward by either side. The delay, it appears, is related to the ongoing efforts to reconcile the ARS group that signed the Djibouti peace agreement with the splinter group led by Sheikh Hassan Dahir Aweys and based in Asmara. Both sides sent delegates to Sana’a to iron out their differences. Yemen is providing the venue of the meeting but it is the UN Political Office for Somalia (UNPOS) which is organizing the effort.  

Sources close to the negotiations say that the failure to reach any agreement at the outset in Sana’a prompted the establishment of a committee of elders which included the businessman and former major ICU financier, Sheikh Abu Bakar Omar Adani, Sheikh Abdulkadir Sheikh Omar, and Sheikh Ibrahim Suley, spokesperson for the ICU wing of the ARS and three others. According to sources, the majority of the committee supports the peace process. They are pushing the splinter group from Asmara to completely stop any military activity and accept the opportunity for peace. The Asmara group criticized those who signed the peace agreement for illegal actions, and said these actions had to be nullified. In addition, they demanded that all ARS members should go to Asmara to sort out their differences. The rejection of these demands triggered the establishment of the elders committee. 

The Sana’a talks are an effort to reconcile two groups one of which has opted for a peaceful resolution of the Somali crisis, the other a splinter group based in Eritrea that wants to impose itself on the people of Somalia through terror. As might be expected there are concerns that concessions might be offered to accommodate the more violent party. This in turn could open a door encouraging actors like Eritrea to continue to play a role negating efforts to achieve peace and stability in Somalia.  

  • The 11th Session of the African Union Assembly, held at Sharm el Sheik 30 June to 1 July, can be considered to have been largely successful.  Both the Assembly of Heads of State and Government and the Peace and Security Council gave their support to the Somali peace process and to the agreement signed in Djibouti on June 9 by the TFG and the opposition ARS. Both bodies strongly condemned attacks, threats and acts of violence against AMISOM. Both the Peace and Security Council and the Assembly condemned Eritrean aggression against Djibouti, calling on both parties to use all peaceful means to resolve their differences. Eritrea, although invited, failed to turn up to the relevant Peace and Security Council meeting. In a letter to the Council a few days earlier, the Eritrean Foreign Ministry said it had serious reservations about the Council’s modalities of operation and its standards. These apparently related to the Council’s failure to deal with what Eritrea claimed were Ethiopian violations of the Constitutive Act of the African Union. Until these were addressed Eritrea felt unable to respond to the Council.

On Union Government, the Assembly accepted the proposals of the Committee of Twelve Heads of State and Government on Union Government as a sound basis for moving the integration process forward. It was the consensus of the Summit that the next session of the Assembly in Addis Ababa should bring finality to this interminable debate. Prime Minister Meles, a member of the Committee of Twelve, underlined the need to stop going round and round in a circle on the issue. There were two options, he said. One was to accept the views of the majority as provided in the Constitutive Act of the African Union. This, he said, would prevent the abomination of another grand debate. Alternatively, as member states were sovereign, they could chart their own course, even if they were in a minority. Variable geometry would imply that everyone could move forward at the pace they were able to do so. So, he added, those that want could go ahead and show the way to do it faster. This would break the log-jam of seven years. Seven summits and one special summit had not provided a solution. The grand debate in Accra did not solve the issue. One more extra-ordinary summit would not solve it either. “Save us from another summit of abomination,” he said. “We need to solve this issue here and now, without disturbing our common endeavor.”  

On the venue of Summits, the Assembly agreed to continue to hold the January Summits at AU Headquarters in Addis Ababa. The July Summits will also continue to be held either at the headquarters or in any member state which invites the Assembly. Libya’s suggestion to move the July Summits permanently to Sirte was rejected. On Zimbabwe, Prime Minister Meles said that everyone was saddened by how things had turned out. The election monitors of SADC and the AU said that the elections did not reflect the unfettered views of the people of Zimbabwe. Disenchantment, Prime Minister Meles said, was a fact that needed to be addressed. The status quo was untenable and unsustainable. It required real solutions with both sides listening to each other. It was only then, the Prime Minister emphasized that Zimbabwe could again move forward.  

  • Ethiopia and Sudan have an excellent and strategic relationship based on common appreciation of mutual interests and awareness of regional developments and possibilities. In the last few years, there have been steadily growing economic links. Several cross-border road links have been upgraded and opened. Negotiations over possible supplies of Ethiopian hydroelectric power to Sudan have reached an advanced stage and the potentiality for substantial growth in this sector has become very apparent.  Last December, the World Bank approved a $41 million credit to help finance a transmission line to connect Ethiopia to Sudan’s power grid. Ethiopia's use of Port Sudan has been growing steadily, and Ethiopia currently gets a substantial portion of its petroleum products from Sudan. Sudan has accepted Ethiopian troops for the UNAMID force in Darfur. The relationship between the Government in Khartoum and Ethiopia is in fact healthy, strong and steadily expanding. This does not mean, as in all border areas, that incidents may not occur. It does mean that when they do arise, as happened on Monday, they can be handled promptly and at the highest level, with both sides making every effort to ensure they should be contained and dealt with quickly. That is why a Sudanese presidential envoy arrived in Addis Ababa today.

 

  • On Saturday, tens of thousands of Ethiopians from different walks of life thronged the Addis Ababa stadium. Waving the tri-color of red, green and gold, symbolizing Ethiopian independence and defiant invincibility in the face of aggression, they were celebrating Millennium Flag Day, Ethiopia’s first Flag Day. Present on the occasion were President Girma Woldegiorgis, Prime Minister Meles Zenawi, Foreign Minister Seyoum Mesfin, the Regional State Presidents and other senior federal and regional government officials. Prime Minister Meles Zenawi, addressing the huge gathering, said the participation of Ethiopians on this solemn occasion was a testimony to their commitment to the on-going efforts to relieve poverty as well as a demonstration of loyalty to the Constitution and the National Emblem. The celebration, he said, was also an opportunity for the youth of Ethiopia to renew the pledges they had made for the realization of Ethiopia’s Renaissance, a point underlined by the subsequent march past which included hundreds of young scouts and guides. Prime Minister Meles hoisted the national flag and entrusted the tri-color to Presidents of the Regional States, the Chief of Staff of the National Defense Forces and the commander of the Federal Police in a symbolic gesture emphasizing the responsibility of all these bodies for the unity and sovereignty of the state of Ethiopia. President Girma Woldegiorgis underlined the heavy sacrifices Ethiopians have so often paid to protect their sovereignty, closing ranks in defense of the national flag. The national flag, he said, was a symbol of the cohesion existing among the various regional states.

In his speech, Foreign Minister Seyoum Mesfin, the Deputy Chairman of the Ethiopian Millennium Festival National Council, said the flag was the embodiment of the popular unity that Ethiopia’s Nations, Nationalities and Peoples had forged on the basis of mutual respect, equality, common interest and joint progress. “Our flag is a symbol of freedom and sovereignty”, said Minister Seyoum, adding that it was also  a symbol of the struggle to realize prosperity, good governance, durable peace and the building of a democratic order. This celebration, he noted, was not just an occasion at which the peoples of Ethiopia, and more particularly the new generation, were singing the national anthem as a sign of devotion and honor to their flag. It was also an event at which they pledged to stand together, to realize the Renaissance of Ethiopia, launched through the celebration of the New Millennium throughout this year. Minister Seyoum said this occasion afforded an historic opportunity to mark with grandeur the celebration of Flag Day, for the first time, at federal and regional levels on the same date and at the same moment. At the centre of the celebrations of the Ethiopian Millennium, the Minister said, was the building of a national consensus based on development, democracy and good governance. “Our flag”, he said, “should symbolize a prosperous and developed nation, a nation which affords a decent life for its people and in which democracy and good governance have been entrenched. This sign of allegiance to freedom and sovereignty must also serve as a signpost for the roadmap leading to a bright future”. He said that the display of the flag should evoke a feeling of pride, and even more it should become the symbol of an enhanced image and honor once Ethiopia prevailed over poverty and succeeded in its development efforts. Minister Seyoum emphasized that despite the very many gains already made, the Nations, Nationalities and Peoples of Ethiopia could not succeed in ensuring their viability, or their honor and that of the flag, unless they overcame poverty and backwardness. “The young generation”, he said, “has the obligation to carry on the responsibilities handed down from the previous generation. It has to realize that defending the sovereignty and honor of the country and its flag is only possible when it plays its proper role in the fight against poverty and for democracy and good governance.” Foreign Minister Seyoum concluded, “The flag is the symbol of the Ethiopian Renaissance. It is the reaffirmation of our commitment to the realization of that Renaissance, and a demonstration of the sovereignty of the Ethiopian Nations, Nationalities and Peoples”.  

  • On July 7th Eritrea’s Permanent Representative to the United Nations forwarded a letter written four days earlier by President Issayas to the President of the Security Council. President Issayas’ letter appears in part to be a response to Djibouti’s claims of Eritrean aggression though much of it is devoted directly or indirectly to Ethiopia. It is worth looking at this letter in some detail as there are times when President Issayas’ flights of fancy appear to bear little relationship whatever to current events. It has to raise doubts about his grasp on reality.

In the letter, President Issayas categorizes Djibouti’s complaint against Eritrea for its invasion and seizure of Djiboutian territory around Ras Doumeira as a “bogus and dramatized accusation”. This is a typical Eritrean procedure, or rather it is typical of President Issayas’ diplomatic bullying methods. It is something he has employed, or attempted to employ, on several other occasions, as over the Hanish Islands against Yemen in 1996, and Ethiopia over Badme in 1998.This process frequently involves repeated blanket denials of an action which, as in this case, can be confirmed by journalistic reports, photographs, film of Eritrean military activity across the border and concrete evidence of clashes, including Eritrean prisoners. The maneuver is often accompanied by calls for international arbitration with the implication that any failure to accept this will be accompanied by further aggression. It is usually coupled with wild, unproven allegations of which there is no evidence whatever, and of continuous denials of any Eritrean involvement. President Issayas appears to believe that if he denies things often enough, people might come round to accepting his statements. Eritrea’s continual support for Al-Shabaab terrorists in Mogadishu is a case in point. Eritrea has continued to deny any involvement with Al-Shabaab, or indeed with Somali opposition, despite detailed reports of arms flights from Eritrea to Somalia, itemization of the arms supplied to Al-Shabaab and other opponents of the Somali government, and evidence from those trained in terrorist tactics in Eritrea. Despite this detailed, and incontrovertible, evidence, President Issayas continues to deny Eritrean support for anti-government groups and terrorists or even any involvement in Somalia, in Ethiopia or now in Djibouti.

President Issayas’ letter also accuses the United States of responsibility for Djibouti’s accusations against Eritrea. He claims the whole situation was designed by the United States to cover up an invasion by Ethiopian forces, of Mount Musa Ali, taking over Eritrean and Djiboutian territory to the south west of Ras Doumeira. It is perhaps pedantic to point out that confluence is more usually used for rivers than mountains. It should also be noted that this allegation is completely untrue and there has been no Ethiopian military takeover of any territory, whether of Eritrea or Djibouti, at or around Mount Musa Ali. 

It must also be pointed out that none of this has any bearing or relationship on the dispute between Ethiopia and Eritrea. As Eritrea and President Issayas knows perfectly well, no progress can be made on border demarcation until Eritrea returns into full compliance with the bilateral agreements, the Algiers Agreements of June and December 2000. In practice, Eritrea has deliberately torn up the Agreement on Cessation of Hostilities (June 2000), seizing the Temporary Security Zone and driving out the US Mission intended to monitor the zone. To claim this is the result of Ethiopian procrastination over border demarcation is, as Eritrea knows perfectly well, both stupid and an obvious lie. Ethiopia has made it repeatedly and abundantly clear that it fully accepts demarcation according to international norms, under the Algiers Agreements. By contrast Eritrea, despite any claims to the contrary, has consistently refused to allow any discussion to take place, and refused to make any progress towards actual implementation.  

One might add that President Issayas’ claim that Eritrea has persisted in a “legal approach” to secure respect for its territorial integrity is difficult to accept, given its invasion of Djibouti this year, its attack on Yemen in 1996, its invasion of Ethiopia in 1998, and its attacks on Sudan after 1994. At the end of last month Eritrea announced it would no longer submit any complaints to the Africa Commission’s Peace and Security Council because it had repeatedly remained silent over what it called Ethiopia’s violations of the Constitutive Act, and had serious reservations over the Council’s modalities of operation. Eritrea, of course, withdrew from IGAD at the beginning of last year when the organization fully backed Ethiopia’s involvement in Somalia at the request of the Somali Government.  

This latest letter of President Issayas to the Security Council, apart from its failure to respond to any questions of substance in good faith, appears to show confusion and a distinct lack of clarity indicating a manifest disorganization in the Presidency. It also fails to answer any of the questions raised over Eritrea’s activities in Djibouti and its failure to withdraw from Djibouti territories.

          Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia

                     Ministry of Foreign Affairs