• On Monday this week, advance units of the United  Nations Mission to Ethiopia and Eritrea (UNMEE) started their temporary relocation from Eritrea into Ethiopia. The main body was supposed to start its move yesterday, but only a few cars have yet been able to cross the border. Other vehicles carrying equipment have been stopped and ordered to turn back by Eritrean forces. Although discussions have been held in New York with the Permanent Representative of Eritrea, and between UNMEE officials and Eritrean troops in the Temporary Security Zone, to try and facilitate the relocation of UNMEE personnel and equipment into Ethiopia, no apparent progress has been made. As of today, in the face of Eritrea’s refusal to co-operate with UNMEE and its continued restrictions, UNMEE has been unable to get the relocation process underway. It may now even be facing the possibility of running out of food for its personnel.

The details of the relocation to Ethiopia were agreed between Ethiopian authorities and a UN Technical Assessment Team sent to the region last week  by the Secretary General. The Assessment Team returned to New York on Monday. It successfully completed its mission in Ethiopia but was unable to visit Asmara. After initially issuing entry visas, the Government of Eritrea refused permission for the UN Team to travel to Eritrea.

The Government of Ethiopia made it clear to the UN Technical Assessment Team that Ethiopia was prepared to provide full co-operation to temporarily relocate the United Nations Mission to Ethiopia and Eritrea (UNMEE) to Ethiopia. This was in  response to the precarious situation of UNMEE, and of its troops and personnel in Eritrea, following Eritrea's stoppage of all diesel fuel supplies to the Mission,. The Government of Ethiopia noted that Eritrea had been emboldened to continue and intensify its actions against UNMEE by the earlier failure of the Security Council to take measures against Eritrea under Chapter VII of the UN Charter. This is specifically provided for under Article 14 of the Agreement on Cessation of Hostilities. The relocation of UNMEE is a direct result of actions by Eritrea. It is done without prejudice to the continued validity of the Temporary Security Zone, and Ethiopia has emphasized that the obligations of both Eritrea and Ethiopia, under the Agreement on the Cessation of Hostilities, remain in force until such time as the boundary is physically demarcated. It is this, and only this, which allows for the termination of UNMEE's mandate, as defined in article 5 of the Agreement signed by both Ethiopia and Eritrea.

The UN Technical Assessment Team accepted that this position was in line with the Secretary-General's position, as defined by the spokesperson for the Secretary-General: “The Secretary-General emphasizes that the temporary relocation of the Mission's personnel is a contingency measure forced by the restrictions imposed on UNMEE by the Eritrean authorities, which are endangering the safety and security of the Mission's personnel. And is without prejudice to any provisions of the Agreement on the Cessation of Hostilities of 18 June 2000, including [those relating to] the Temporary Security Zone.” The UN Team also made clear that the emergency relocation would last only until the Security Council had taken a decision on the future of UNMEE. Equally, the Team pointed out, UNMEE would only have administrative status in Ethiopia; UNMEE's operational functions remain confined to the Temporary Security Zone. For the moment, UNMEE's headquarters will be moved from Asmara to Mekelle.

The UN Security Council, last month, extended the mandate of UNMEE for six months until 31 July 2008. Under the Algiers Agreements of 2000, the mandate of UNMEE and the Temporary Security Zone must remain valid and operative until final demarcation on the ground has been completed. Eritrea's action, which amount to the practical expulsion of UNMEE from the Temporary Security Zone (TSZ), is therefore a unilateral measure in flagrant violation of the Algiers Agreements. As noted, the Cessation of Hostilities Agreement provides for the Security Council to  take enforcement action against the party violating the TSZ. The Security Council has, so far, chosen not to do so. On 30 January 2008, the Security Council adopted Resolution 1798 (2008), limiting itself to demanding, not for the first time, that Eritrea should immediately withdraw all troops and heavy military equipment from the TSZ. In a Presidential Press Statement four days later, the Security Council also reiterated its demand that Eritrea “forthwith and without preconditions” lift all restrictions on fuel deliveries to UNMEE, to allow the Mission to carry out its extended mandate. It also asked Eritrea to receive the UN Technical Assessment Mission.

The Security Council now has two options. One is to enforce Eritrea's return to full compliance with the Algiers Agreements by allowing UNMEE to return to the TSZ with all restrictions lifted. The other is to terminate UNMEE, making it clear it does not have the capacity to carry out a mandate expressly given to it under the bilateral treaty between Ethiopia and Eritrea, under the Algiers Agreements. This would set a precedent with enormous, and very damaging, implications for any future peace-keeping missions. Ethiopia itself has already put Eritrea on notice that Eritrea's continued violations of the Cessation of Hostilities Agreement, unless reversed, would sooner or later have grave consequences for the validity of the Algiers Agreements as a whole. That was the rationale for the formal Notification sent to Eritrea last September. Eritrea has failed to respond to the Ethiopian Notification within the three months prescribed by the Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties. Eritrea is now also in violation of the Law on Treaties as well as the Algiers Agreements and numerous Security Council Resolutions.     

The problem between UNMEE and Eritrea actually originated at the time UNMEE was set up under the Status of Forces Agreement in 2001. Eritrea never signed the Status of Forces Agreement. It subsequently introduced restrictions on UNMEE’s use of helicopters and expelled members of certain nations participating in UNMEE, essentially undermining the UN’s concept of universality.This was followed by further restrictions on the Mission, and steadily increasing infiltrations of Eritrean troops violating the demilitarized Temporary Security Zone. The result has been growing humiliation of UNMEE. This, and the lack of any response by the UN Security Council, has allowed a United Nations peacekeeping force to be pushed out of its formally designated role. Ethiopia now expects the United Nations Security Council to acknowledge its responsibilities and take action to ensure that the integrity of the Temporary Security Zone is fully re-established. Ethiopia will continue to co-operate fully with the United Nations. It acknowledges the contribution made by the troop-contributing countries of UNMEE, and shares their concern over the present situation. UNMEE forces are, of course, present as a result of  an agreement between Ethiopia and Eritrea, to which Eritrea fully subscribed and consented.  

• In Mogadishu, last Sunday, 49 Al-Shabaab fighters who had surrendered were introduced to senior government officials at a public ceremony organized by the Benadir Regional Administration. The 49 were part of a group of 103 Ayr youth sent for training in Asmara five months ago and who had recently returned to Mogadishu.Their surrender was welcomed by the Mayor of Mogadishu, Mohamed Dheere, and the Commissioner of Police, General Abdi Awale Qaybdiid, who said this was a welcome and positive response to the government’s call for reconciliation. Although a spokesman for the Islamic Courts Union denied that any of its fighters had surrendered, another 38 of the group have also given themselves up in recent days, making a total of 87 out of the 103. They are now expected to be given further training before joining the TFG police or security forces. Reports from Mogadishu  indicate that calls by Haber Gidir/Hawiye ministers for the new government to be given a chance for peace are having a real effect. Community support for reconciliation has been growing, and the surrender of this group of Asmara trainees appears to have been at the initiative of Haber Gider community elders. On Wednesday, Ports and Transport Minister, Mohamed Ibrahim Habsade, visited Merka at the head of a government delegation to encourage support for peace and diaolgue. He told a public meeting that the efforts of anti-goverment groups to seize power through violence, by killing people and blowing up things, could not succeed.  

This week both President Abdullahi Yusuf of Somalia and President Adde Mussa of Puntland have been in Addis Ababa. Both met and briefed Prime Minister Meles on the situation in Somalia. Talks centered on bilateral relations, and on the need for capacity building in Somalia, and Puntland. Prime Minister Meles, who noted that security in Somalia was improving daily, said that Ethiopia would continue its support to help bring about susatianable peace and security in the country. Ethiopia would assist the legitimate government of Somalia until it could stand on its own feet. Prime Minister Meles also stressed the need for a peaceful resolution to the dispute between Puntland and Somaliland. Talking to journalists afterwards, President Abdullahi emphasized the need for the international community to provide the necessary support for a durable peace in Somalia.

Prime Minister Nur Hassan ‘Adde’, who met with Prime Minister Meles last week, subsequently met donors in Nairobi before going on to Brussels. He was accompanied by the ministers of foreign affairs and finance. He also paid a brief visit to Paris where he met French Foreign Minister, Bernard Kouchner, on Wednesday. In Nairobi, Prime Minister Nur Hassan signed a partnership agreement with donors for a six months (US $12 million) package to provide for human resources, office equipment and support for community engagment for the offices of the Prime Minister and other ministeries. The TFG is now formulating plans to get assistance for capacity building and for training of civil servants. 

In Brussels, EU Commissioner for Development, Louis Michel, welcomed the Somali Prime Minister’s committment to the development of a road map for the remainder of the transitional period to include a constitutition, census and elections. He said that the EU Country strategy for Somalia, for the period 2008 to 2013, with a proposed provision of more than 254 million euros (US$ 369million) would provide support for the road map. In a statement, Mr. Michel also underlined the need for AMISOM to reach its full complement of 8,000 troops and for the international community to support the development and reform of the Somali security forces. So far, 635 members of the Somali security forces have been fully trained in Ethiopia, and are doing an excellent job in keeping the peace in Mogadishu. Another group of more than 2000, including 1000 police, are half way through a six month training programme.

Prime Minister Nur Hasaan ‘Adde’ has made it clear that he is planning to elaborate an all-inclusive strategy of reconciliation. Contacts with opposition forces are already under way. In an interview in Brussels he said that discussions “will not be very far away now”, and added that the issue of Ethiopian troops in Somalia could be tackled in any discussions. Opposition groups in Asmara have made the departure of Ethiopian troops from Somalia a precondition for talks. Opposition leaders have been gathering in Cairo this week, but the Arab League has formally denied that it had invited them. The Arab League’s envoy to Somalia said on Wednesday that the Arab League was not prepared to take sides; it was neutral among Somali political players. According to sources in Cairo, the meeting is expected to be attended by leaders of the Alliance for the Re-liberation of Somalia, based in Asmara. It was apparently called by Egypt and some European countries as a prelude to talks with the TFG. However, reports from Cairo suggest no indication of  flexibility appearing in the views of the oppositoin. The whole exercise may well end up reinforcing the intransigence of opposition groups based in Eritrea.    

• The Speciality Coffee Association of America has announced that Ethiopia is to be the featured Portrait Country Sponsor for its 20th annual conference to be held in Minneapolis at the beginning of May. The sponsorship agreement will be signed this afternoon at a press conference at the Ethiopian Embassy in Washington by the Ethiopian Ambassasor to the United States, Dr. Samuel Assefa, and the Executive Director of the Speciality Coffee Association. This is the first time that an African state has featured in this role at the Association’s meeting.  The Speciality Coffee Association brings together some  8,000 coffee professionals from more than 40 countries at its annual gatherings. More than 60 delegates from Ethiopia will be attending this year. Ambassador Assefa said that Ethiopia was delighted to be chosen as the Portrait Country Sponsor, and was very pleased to be continuing its collaboration with Starbucks which was helping to support Ethiopia’s sponsorship of the event. The Ambassador said Ethiopia was excited to have such an important role in the speciality coffee industry’s premier conference and exhibition. It would give, he said, Ethiopia an unparalleled opportunity to showcase the world’s finest coffees and also present its recent coffee trandmark and licensing initiative as a new platform for partnership in the coffee industry. Already more than 70 companies have so far signed up or expressed committment to become licensed distributors of Ethiopia’s most famous coffee brands. 
   
• The Ethio-Russian Economic, Science and Technical Joint Commission convened its third regular meeting in Moscow this week. The Ethiopian delegation was led by Minister of Trade and Industry, Girma Biru, Co-Chairman of the Joint Commission. Head of the Russian Federal Agency for Mineral Resources, with the rank of Minister and  also Co-Chairman of the Joint Commission,  Mr.A.Ledovsky, headed the Russian delegation. In a speech at the meeting Minister Girma Biru said the two countries had long-standing and excellent ties in the spheres of culture, economics and politics. Trade ties between the two countries had been steadily growing since the launching of the Joint Commission in November 1999. Ethiopia exported goods worth US $7 million to Russia in 2006; imports were valued at US $72 million. Main exports to Russia are flowers, coffee and oil seeds; imports include chemicals, fertilizer and machinery.Noting the imbalance, the Minister emphasized the need for  the involvement of Russian investors in the sectors of agriculture,industry,mining,energy and construction. He pointed out that Ethiopia,  with an annual average growth rate of about 11 per cent over the past four years, and its Preferential Market Access, was advantageous to prospective businessmen. Minister Lodovsky, for his part, mentioned the interest of Russian investors in the mining and energy sectors and their participation in various tenders. Ethiopia and Russia have also signed agreed Minutes on Cooperation in the spheres of mining, trade, energy, transport, agriculture, education, health, tourism and telecommunications. Representatives of the Joint Commission will meet in the first quarter of 2009 to review implementation. Minister Girma Biru also met and held discussions in Moscow with potential Russian and Ethiopian investors interested particularly in leather, construction, hotel and floriculture development, briefing them on opportunities for trade and investment.