A Week in the Horn

      22/08/2008 

• Talks between Somalia’s President and Prime Minister at a critical juncture

• The Istanbul Declaration and the successful first Africa-Turkey Co-operation Summit

• Ethiopia’s real ambassadors - our Olympic heroes and heroines

• CEWARN’s proposed Rapid Response Framework

• An IGAD delegation in Asmara

• Challenges and opportunities of democratization in Africa

• The peace process in Somalia continues to face serious complications from developments which are causing friends of Somalia serious unhappiness, almost to the point of losing hope. The latest difficulties relate to misunderstandings within the TFG, particularly between the President and the Prime Minister. Regrettably this is taking place at a time when from all indications there were reasons for optimism. First of all, the Djibouti process has continued to move forward. Following the Djibouti Agreement of June 9, a meeting took place last weekend in Djibouti and the Joint Security and High Level Committees called for under the Agreement held their first sessions. Real possibilities for genuine reconciliation between the two sides associated with the Djibouti process from the beginning have been apparent. What was achieved in Djibouti last weekend was a confirmation of this positive trend within the peace process. The meeting between the representatives of the TFG and the ARS concluded with the formal signing of the Agreement reached on June 9, and with the issue of a communiqué which laid out the terms of reference for the High Level and Joint Security Committees. Both sides expressed optimism over the meeting which largely dealt with practical details, including the delivery of humanitarian assistance for which both sides agreed to do everything possible to ensure there should be no interference. Meanwhile, on Tuesday, the UN Security Council authorized a further six months extension for the activities of AMISOM in Somalia. In an unanimous resolution the Security Council also asked UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon to work with the AU to strengthen UN logistical, political and technical support to help bring AMISOM up to UN standards. It also stated a willingness to consider at an appropriate time “a peacekeeping operation to take over from AMISOM, subject to progress in the political process and improvement in the security situation on the ground”. 

Paradoxically, therefore, what has been happening over the last week or so has been significant progress in the peace process on the one hand, in Djibouti, while on the other there has been an upsurge of unnecessary problems between the President and Prime Minister. Inevitably, the rift between the two top officials of the TFG has had an impact on the general situation in Somalia. Indeed, as Ethiopian Foreign Minister Seyoum told the Financial Times this week it is the biggest obstacle to peace. Minister Seyoum said it was “an intra-government crisis that is preventing them from focusing on the tasks they need to get done. There has been a lack of vigour, and if I may say so, a lack of commitment.” Minister Seyoum added that for the President and Prime Minister to create a durable peace they needed to implement the plans to create regional administrations that would give a greater stake in government and potentially help to reconcile the warring clans. In fact, there is no doubt that the rift between President and Prime Minister, together with the anger displayed by the Asmara-based opposition group over the progress of the Djibouti Agreement  and the peace process, has had unfortunate repercussions on the general situation on the ground. Underlining this have been three serious confrontations this week between Al-Shabaab and TFG forces.  

The presence of the President, the Prime Minister and the Speaker of Parliament, for talks in Addis Ababa for all of a week, indicates there has yet been little progress in resolving the dispute. While it still may not be possible to say when their discussions will end, there is no doubt they are at a critical point. The bottom line is that the peace process in Somalia can have no future unless the President, and the Prime Minister, and the Speaker can work together. While the people of Somalia for sure are losing, the only people who benefit from their disagreements are Al-Shabaab or the Asmara-based opposition. Indeed, progress within the time remaining for completion of the peace process, and of the Charter, is only possible if the President and Prime Minister stop trying to remove each other. Neither can do so. They have a symbiotic relationship. However, one has to ask if the top officials cannot work together, how can they effectively undertake negotiations with an opposition with whom they have far greater philosophical and ideological differences than with each other.  

• This week the first Africa-Turkey Cooperation Summit was held in Istanbul from 18 to 21 August. Under the co-chairmanship of President Abdullah Gul for Turkey and Prime Minister Meles Zenawi, Ethiopia’s Head of Government, and chairman of IGAD, for Africa, the summit successfully concluded with agreement on the Istanbul Declaration on Africa-Turkey partnership and a Framework of Cooperation. The Istanbul Declaration outlined the principles to guide and govern co-operation between the two parties, laying out the areas of co-operation. The two parties pledged their efforts to promote peace and security and to respect international law, commit themselves to democracy, observation of human rights and humanitarian law, disarmament, the prevention and combating of terrorism, to combat illicit trafficking in small arms, the non-proliferation of nuclear and other weapons of mass destruction, and to the pursuit of social justice and the eradication of hunger and poverty.  Africa and Turkey expressed their determination to be guided by respect for the principles of the United Nations Charter, the Constitutive Act of the African Union, the Five Principles of Peaceful Co-existence and other universally recognized principles governing relations among states and adherence to the principle of respect for state sovereignty and territorial integrity as well as avoidance of abuse of the principle of universal jurisdiction.  The declaration goes further to stress the right of all states to participate in international affairs on an equal footing and highlights the adherence of the two parties to the principle of peaceful settlement of international disputes, calling for the resolution of conflicts between states through negotiation, consultation or other peaceful means rather than by use of force or by the threat of use of force. Emphasizing again the need to respect equality among nations, the declaration stresses the right of each state to choose its own course of development, and its own social system and way of life, taking into account its own national conditions. The declaration concludes by setting out nine areas of co-operation.  These -  inter-governmental co-operation, trade and investment, agriculture (including agribusiness, rural development, water resource management and small and medium scale enterprises), health, peace and security, infrastructure, culture, tourism and education and media and information - are outlined in greater detail in the second document of the Summit, the Framework of Co-operation, agreed to by both two sides. This document also contains the details of implementation and the follow-up mechanism which will provide for a summit every 5 years, and between summits, a ministerial meeting every three years, and a meeting of senior officials on two occasions.

This week’s meeting was conducted in three stages. The meeting of senior officials was held in the morning of 18th August, continuing its efforts to finalize the deliberation of documents begun earlier in Addis Ababa. When the Ministerial meeting was convened in the afternoon of the 18th, a consensus had been reached on all the issues contained in the documents except one item in the Framework of Co-operation which arose from the need to accommodate Morocco, which is a non-member of the AU but is part of the Africa-Turkey partnership. It was a question of finding a suitable mechanism of implementation from Africa which would also be acceptable to Morocco. It was agreed that this should be worked out within the next year.  

The Summit clearly demonstrated Turkey’s commitment to an effective partnership with Africa.  In fact this is a process which began in earnest in 2005 when Turkey declared that year the "Year of Africa".  Over the past few years Turkey's engagement with Africa has been growing by leaps and bounds. Turkey has opened offices of the Turkish International Co-operation and Development Agency (TIKA) in three African capitals, Addis Ababa, Khartoum and Dakar.  As specified in the Framework of Cooperation it will enlarge and speed up TIKA programs to provide vocational training for the development of Small and Medium Scale Enterprises (SMES) in Africa.  As highlighted in the same document, the Turkish Eximbank and the Turkish Government are willing to provide "loans for the financing of African development projects including the continental infrastructure network in Africa”.  Both the President and the Prime Minister of Turkey underlined that Turkey will be significantly expanding its presence in Africa, starting with the opening of 15 more embassies around the continent.  

All this is very encouraging for Ethiopia. As ‘A Week in the Horn’ indicated last week, Turkey and Ethiopia have very close bilateral relations, and these ties have been expanding rapidly in recent years. Turkish companies have begun to invest in Ethiopia in growing numbers. More are on the way. Incidentally, Prime Minister Meles used the opportunity of this visit to Istanbul to talk to a significant number of Turkish business people to encourage them to take the decision to start businesses in Ethiopia; most appeared willing to do so. There is no doubt that as Turkey's involvement in Africa grows so will the bilateral partnership between Ethiopia and Turkey. 

Participants from the African side, who included six Heads of State and Government as well as a large number of Prime Ministers, Vice-Presidents and Foreign Ministers, were genuinely surprised at the level of development that Turkey has achieved. Turkish modesty appears to have been the main reason why so few participants were aware of the fact that Turkey is the 16th largest economy in the world and the sixth largest in Europe. There was a widespread feeling among participants at the summit, that Turkey should advertise its achievements rather more. Another theme echoed by many speakers was that Turkey is a country that takes Africa seriously. It was therefore a country with which Africa could do business based on mutual respect and mutual advantage. It is something that Ethiopia can fully confirm from its own extremely promising bilateral relationship with Turkey. 

• A Week in the Horn joins a grateful nation in expressing our gratitude to all of the Ethiopian athletes participating in the Beijing Olympics. They have performed brilliantly; proving their mettle time and time again. We must salute those who won medals, but equally, we are proud of all those who competed to the best of their ability. Their determination and high-spirited patriotism is symbolic of our efforts to rid the country of poverty and destitution, of the driving force behind the Ethiopian Renaissance that we launched in this Millennium Year. Sport, of course, has a crucial place in foreign relations, and the Olympics in particular. It provides a peaceful and friendly place where the nations of the world can both compete and yet stand together in unison to applaud those who excel in whatever field of excellence; where we can all express our total admiration for those women and men and their tireless efforts to attain the highest level of competence. Political and other differences, even war and conflict, are set aside for the Olympic Games. All Ethiopians, of all walks of life, adore our athletes not just for their victories but for their tenacity in ensuring the national flag is hoisted high among nations of the world at all Olympic games and at every international athletic competition. We have come to expect the best from our athletes; they do not  let us down. Their performances and behavior represents the best Ethiopia can offer. The medals of Tirunesh Dibaba, Kenanisa Bekele, Meseret Defar and Sileshi Sihn, and the efforts of all others, reflect the emerging new image of Ethiopia; they show the world how Ethiopia is forging ahead in every field of development. For that we will always honour them. Ethiopia is blessed with athletes who have made us proud in the last two weeks. As this is being written, Tirunesh, one of the most graceful of runners, has again scooped another gold medal in the 5,000metres to add to her golden achievement in the 10,000 metres. It is a double victory emulating the achievement of the legendary Miruts Yifter in the Moscow Olympics. And we can hope that Kenanisa will achieve the same feat tomorrow. The entire Foreign Service establishment, whether in Ethiopia or abroad, salute the achievements of our athletes, and wishes them every success in all future endeavours. We should also take this most appropriate opportunity to congratulate China for hosting such a magnificent, highly successful and memorable Olympiad. It has truly been a “One World, One Dream” event of huge proportions. We would congratulate all and every athlete taking part in the Beijing Olympics for their role in making the games so exciting, so colourful and so peaceful.

We would also hope that others might follow the Olympic example. Ethiopian football needs to learn a lesson or two from our Olympic athletes. The recent internal squabbles, and the international reaction, have put a heavy strain on a game that had been showing some, long overdue, signs of revival in the country. Football in Ethiopia, administrators and players alike, should be aware that the sport is bigger than any individuals or groups. It is about the country and the game. The failure to realize this means that supporters of football in Ethiopia are being forced to ignore local talent and turn away to satellite channels and international championships. It has also given rise to a situation which should never have occurred. Expulsions and boycotts should be extreme measures of last resort. The collective punishment now facing Ethiopian Football will certainly harm the sport and what it stands for in the country. It is certainly time that Ethiopian Football and its administrators learnt  from our Olympic heroes and started to work towards redeeming Ethiopia’s place in the world of football and let the indigenous talent we undoubtedly have be displayed on the African and world stages.  

• IGAD’s Conflict Early Warning and Early Response Mechanism, (CEWARN) this week has been discussing a draft proposal for a Rapid Response Framework and Fund mechanism for its work. Opening a three day meeting in Addis Ababa, CEWARN’s Director, Ambassador Abdelkarim A. Khalil said the proposal would contribute significantly to CEWARN’s efforts and strengthen the early warning response to conflicts. It aimed to institutionalize these responses, outlining strategies to be carried out at local level. The draft proposal suggests possible responses at different stages of conflict: prevention, de-escalation, and reconciliation. Proposed possible interventions includes taking a multi-pronged approach that involves the development of scarce resources like water points, which are most often causes of conflict in pastoral areas. The proposal will be finalized in November.  CEWARN, which has field monitors who report to CEWARN headquarters in Addis Ababa, has been working in pastoral conflict areas in the Karamoja and Somali clusters. Its focus has been in providing early warning of conflict, by monitoring outbreaks of violence, and by the collection, analysis of information to prevent conflict before it occurs. It has been also working to facilitate peace conferences among pastoralists in the reporting areas, and one recent development has been a cross-border peace meeting between the Turkana of Kenya and the Nyangatom of Ethiopia.

• All IGAD members participate in CEWARN, set up in 2002 by IGAD to address issues of peace and security which affect development, stability and security in the IGAD region, with the current  exception of Eritrea. Eritrea suspended its membership of IGAD in April last year. According to IGAD statutes any member state which withdraws participation for a year should have membership terminated. However, the 12th IGAD Summit in Addis Ababa in June this year, noting the implications of Eritrea’s absence for peace and development in the region, decided to make further efforts to persuade Eritrea to reconsider its decision and resume full membership of IGAD. A ministerial delegation contacted the Eritrean delegation at the AU Summit at Sharm el Sheikh two months ago, and on Friday last week, the Sudanese Foreign Minister, Mr. Deng Alor, the Foreign Minister of Kenya, Mr. Moses Welang’ula, and the Executive Secretary of IGAD, Engineer Mahbub M. Maalin, met with President Issayas in Asmara. President Issayas reiterated that Eritrea had suspended its membership of IGAD because of IGAD’s support for what he called Ethiopia’s ‘invasion’ of Somalia. Despite President Issayas’ characterization of this as IGAD complicating rather than trying to resolve some issues, the move did, of course, have the unanimous support of all other IGAD members. Indeed, earlier in March 2006, all members of IGAD, including Eritrea, had supported the involvement of  IGAD in Somalia. President Issayas told the delegation that IGAD had violated its own resolutions and those of the United Nations, and insisted that IGAD needs to be reorganized and its policies redefined. It should prioritize peace and security before tackling the creation of a common market and regional integration, and it should, he said, be restructured and adopt new mechanisms for its activities; it could not achieve its objectives in its present format. Not for the first time, Eritrea appeared to imply that the only country ‘in step’ was Eritrea, and everyone else was in the wrong. Kenya’s Foreign Minister said on departure that the meeting had been fruitful, but there appears to be no likelihood of Eritrea rejoining IGAD until the organization has made some of the changes Eritrea would like to see.

• At its 66th  regular Session, a few weeks ago the Council of Ministers of the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia has endorsed seven African Union (AU) treaties among them the African Charter on Democracy, Elections and Governance, the Additional Protocol to the OAU General Convention on Privileges and Immunities, the Convention on the African Energy Commission, the Protocol to the OAU Convention on the Prevention and Combating of Terrorism, the Agreement for the Establishment of the African Rehabilitation Institute (ARI), the Inter-African Convention Establishing an African Technical Co-operation Programme, and the Convention for the Establishment of the African Centre for Fertilizer Development.

The decision to endorse the African Charter on Democracy, Elections and Governance in particular, demonstrates Ethiopia's resolve to continue to support Africa's collective endeavours to bring peace, security and development to the continent. The purpose of this particular Charter is to pave the way for meaningful transformation in Africa by institutionalizing democratic governance in all member states of the Union. Respect for human rights, promotion of free and fair elections on a regular basis, condemnation of unconstitutional changes of government, strengthening good governance, the promotion and protection of the independence of the judiciary, and other basic tenets of democracy and good governance are the core elements of the Charter. It further codifies and institutionalizes the African Union’s rejection of unconstitutional changes of government, a principle firmly anchored in the Constitutive Act of the African Union. The Charter elaborates on what constitutes unconstitutional change of government and the mechanisms to ensure that all states comply with this cardinal principle of any democratic society. When the House of Peoples’ Representatives ratify the Charter as endorsed by the Council of Ministers, which they will do after they return from recess, this will underline Ethiopia’s unwavering commitment to these principles, principles that are in fact already enshrined in the Constitution of the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia, and which have been, and are, scrupulously observed.  

The adoption of the Charter at the continental level is an important milestone in Africa's quest for sustainable stability, peace and prosperity. It is also an assurance that democracy can no longer be seen as an alien concept that needs to be grafted onto Africa, with a view to fixing all the problems of the continent. This is a view that has had its own constituency for far too long among some elite circles. Democratization efforts were supposedly to be stimulated by rewards or penalties from the donor community in accordance with the donors’ own criteria. Many African countries were enticed to embark on democratization in response to external promises or threats from donors who lacked any proper understanding of the internal dynamics of African societies. Democracy can only take root if people understand and believe in it fully. No less significant is that they must own it, and because they own it, they then cherish it and are prepared to espouse values such as tolerance and to celebrate diversity. Any external template for democratization which isn't owned by the people  will merely contribute to mistrust between political elites and ordinary people. It can occasionally lead to bloodshed. The Charter, therefore, should be seen as a vital collective instrument to bridge the gap between external stimulus and internal dynamics in the process of democratization in Africa.  

Democratization, of course, is not free from challenge. There have been a number of recent examples of political crisis in various countries. Some recent situations in Africa have demonstrated the critical need to understand how societies can easily be destabilized and how necessary it is to avoid instigating hostilities among sections of society in the name of democracy. It should also be stressed that democracy is a process which requires the establishment of institutions for its proper functioning and sustainability. These institutions need to be nurtured and respected in a way that can earn the confidence of the people. Political parties, in Africa, and elsewhere, have a particular responsibility to refrain from undermining public confidence in such institutions. It is unfortunate that it has become all too common to condemn automatically electoral institutions after polling has finished, when losers discover the institutions are not prepared to deliver the favourable outcome they demand. All too often they then find sympathetic, if often ignorant, ears outside the continent. The result is a further damaging impact on the credibility of the involved institutions. 

Democracy is a process that matures through time. If nothing else it takes a considerable time to create and structure the required bodies, to build the necessary institutions. Institutions need credibility and integrity. This is certainly true of those involved in democratic procedures. It is equally true more widely. Institutions are part of the provision of checks and balances in the political process, indeed they are a  requirement for any sustainable political community. Two issues, among others, must be raised here. One has to do with the fact that it is not only institutions that need to be built up to ensure that democracy takes root. Equally important is adherence to the values that are so critical for the strengthening of the foundations of democratic governance, not only within the political class but also within the entire society. Institutions are not created in a day. The development and nuturing of democratic values that shape behavior conducive to tolerance, preparedness for give and take, is even more arduous and can only be the result of an extended period of societal development. Africans cannot be unaware of how long it took for existing democracies to create the institutions and develop the values that underpin these institutions in the course of the development of their democracies. There is so much misconception, and so many misleading and destabilizing approaches in connection with this, that a clearer understanding of the issues involved is a sine qua non for the emergence of a stable, prosperous and democratic Africa. Secondly, democratic institutions and the culture that goes with them, are not developed by ruling parties alone or by benevolent leaders. It is a work that requires the contribution of all, particularly of those whose work is politics and who aspire to positions of political authority, notably from opposition parties. 

It hardly needs to be emphasised that no one, no matter how committed they might be to democracy, can be more devoted to the democratization of a given society than the people of that specific society. Altruism has limits, no matter how saintly non-citizens may be. It is also precisely for this reason that compatriots and citizens of the same country, no matter how bitter their political differences, cannot and should not place more trust in non-citizens than in each other when it comes to matters affecting the destiny of their societies, unless of course they believe they have other societies they can claim as their own.      

This is also why it is wrong to judge the success of a democratization process on the basis of the outcome of a single periodic election. Once the relevant institutions and the organization of an election reach an acceptable standard, African politicians, any politicians, must avoid targeting the institutions and be prepared to live with the outcome of the process. The African Charter on Democracy, Elections and Governance is a good place to start in building acceptance of democratic processes. It is a comprehensive instrument addressing all aspects of building the institutions of democracy. It is also entirely compatible with the democratization process in Ethiopia. It is very fitting that the Council of Ministers has recommended it for ratification by the House of Peoples` Representatives.