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The
need for the International Community to act and act decisively in
Somalia
IGAD in its recent
meetings, of the Council of Ministers in June, and the Heads of
State and Government in July, underlined the need for concerted
efforts from all its member states and from the international
community to assist the TFG in its endeavors to ensure peace and
stability in Somalia. Commendably, its efforts have produced some
tangible results, one of which has been broadening the peace process
to bring on board others who are prepared for peace and stability in
Somalia.
The IGAD Summit, in the final communiqué from its Addis Ababa
meeting, instructed the IGAD Chiefs of Defense Staffs to draw up an
action plan, to cover an increase in the level of forces required to
enable AMISOM to carry out its mandated peacekeeping activities and
to restructure the TFG’s security institutions to become effective
and manageable with proper command control structures. The Chiefs of
Defense Staffs who met the week before the AU’s Kampala summit
rapidly responded. Their plans are now being implemented with the
member states preparing for the deployment of the required experts
and drawing up the necessary logistics.
IGAD’s efforts have also begun to receive the needed attention from
the international community. The US-moderated meeting on Somalia,
chaired by Ambassador Carson, the US Assistant Secretary of State
for Africa, and held on the sidelines of the AU Summit in Kampala
has been instrumental in creating a framework for coordinating
international support to the TFG and AMISOM. It is a framework which
can certainly be expected to provide tangible results to the efforts
of the TFG and AMISOM to fight the scourge of terrorism. The
understandings reached at the sideline meeting have already led to
encouraging follow-up steps, and a substantial joint demarche is
being planned involving the African Union and a number of European
and African countries and the United States. The demarche will call
for specific backing for Somalia and to AMISOM, and can be hoped to
bring about considerable and immediate financial and logistical
support to the TFG and AMISOM in concrete terms, as well as further
pledges of troop contributions for AMISOM.
The widely-condemned bombings by Al-Shabaab in Kampala clearly
demonstrate the capacity and determination of terrorist groups to
inflict damage anywhere in the sub-region and show a potential
ability to extend their activity to any corner of the globe.
Assisting the TFG and AMISOM will ensure the defeat of these groups
on the ground and also help stabilize Somalia permanently. It will
also go a long way to limiting terrorist activities in the region.
It underlines the critical need to provide the financial and
logistical support to enable AMISOM to reach its authorized level of
8100 troops.
Another important point raised during the sideline meeting on
Somalia in Kampala was reiteration of the need to re-formulate
AMISOM as a UN peacekeeping force. This is something that needs
immediate attention from the international community and
particularly by the UN Security Council. Certainly, the recent
announcement by the UN Secretary General’s Special Representative
for Somalia, Ambassador Augustine Mahiga, of plans to increase the
presence of the UN Political Office for Somalia (UNPOS) inside
Somalia will help advance the peace process in the country. The
move, which will involve the relocation of some UN staff and offices
to Mogadishu and other places, is certainly long overdue. It will
enable much greater coordination between the TFG, IGAD, AMISOM and
all other stakeholders. AMISOM’s civilian component should also
relocate to Mogadishu as soon as possible as well. This would
reinforce the growing appreciation of TFG and AMISOM requirements
for effective and concrete assistance.
Last weekend, the TFG’s Joint Security Committee met under the
co-chairmanship of Prime Minister Omar Abdirashid Ali Sharmarke and
Ambassador Mahiga (UNSGSR) in Nairobi. Discussions were aimed at
achieving an action-oriented framework to cover, inter alia, support
for the security forces, police and the relevant ministries. The
committee urged the government to move forward on development of the
security sector, including the provision of financial
accountability, and to build on the present momentum for
international support. As a priority, it should adopt the National
Security and Stabilization Plan and the Security Sector Assessment
and put the recommendations into practice. The committee commended
the efforts of the IGAD Council of Ministers and the IGAD Summit, as
endorsed by the AU Assembly, to strengthen the TFG’s security sector
and AMISOM; and the new initiative of the US in mobilizing resources
in support of the TFG and AMISOM. It expressed its appreciation to
all current donors and encouraged other partners to extend similar
support. It welcomed AMISOM’s renewed commitment to take additional
measures to ensure the protection of civilians, commended the
Mission for continuing to extend essential basic services, such as
medical assistance, to the civilian population, and expressed its
appreciation of AMISOM’s efforts to establish a safe zone to
encourage the gradual return of international community offices back
to Mogadishu. The Committee also reaffirmed the need to provide
protection to civilians against insurgent atrocities, to maintain
law and order, and to avoid civilian casualties through the
provision of appropriate training for security forces, information
gathering, appropriate operational equipment and application of the
relevant rules of engagement under international law.
These developments may be encouraging but they also underline how
important it is that the TFG leadership demonstrates its commitment
and readiness to continue to work together, to maintain its cohesion
and implement the agreements concluded with Ahlu Suna wal Jama’a at
all levels. The positive developments in democratization witnessed
in Somaliland should be supported and encouraged. The recent
fighting between Puntland security forces and the extremists led by
the so-called Sheikh ‘Atom’ is a clear indication that the threat
posed by Al-Shabaab is not confined to the southern areas of Somalia
but extends into those areas that have established relative peace
and stability. And these regions need concrete support to build up
their capacity to fight terrorism. The efforts by the international
community to support the TFG and AMISOM should include a
comprehensive approach to all the areas of the former Somali state
with the aim of maintaining whatever peace and stability has been
created in their respective areas.
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A
paradigm shift in the Ethiopian Diaspora
A
demonstration in support of peace and development in Ethiopia,
involving hundreds of Ethiopians and Ethiopian Americans, took place
last week in Washington. Demonstrations by Ethiopians in Washington
are nothing new, but this was something of a watershed, underlining
an important shift of politics within the Diaspora. This is not
simply because of the unusually large number of those involved in
the demonstration, nor the fact that Ethiopians and Ethiopian
Americans had come out in droves to support Ethiopia’s determined
effort in its quest to end poverty and bring about economic
development. After all, the majority of the Ethiopian Diaspora,
albeit all-too-often a silent majority, has always been supportive
of their homeland. What is new is that the hitherto silent majority
finally seems to have decided that enough is enough, and determined
to stand up to the violent intimidation and name-calling of the few,
if vocal opposition extremists, and to demonstrate its support for
Ethiopia.
This raises an interesting, and important question: what has brought
about this change. Certainly, it is not a secret that their country,
Ethiopia, has during the last few years shown to all who have been
prepared to see and observe that the country is on an unmistakable
trajectory towards producing sustainable peace, democracy, and rapid
economic development. This is the sort of progress that has,
unfortunately, been lacking for several decades. In Ethiopia today,
there is renewed hope and optimism, cemented by the proven record of
the government and people of Ethiopia and underlined by their
uncompromising commitment to bring about rapid economic development,
and, indeed the transformation of the state. The trend in Ethiopia
towards a national consensus on core issues of peace, democracy, and
economic development is unmistakable as the recent election
resoundingly demonstrated. In fact, it should be no surprise if this
growing national consensus should also be reflected in the
Diaspora.
Indeed, the statement issued by the organizers of the day of the
demonstration unambiguously illustrates that fact. Among other
things, the demonstrators expressed their support to Ethiopia’s
right for a fair and equitable use of the Nile River; they expressed
their full support to the unremitting efforts to eliminate poverty
and to the economic growth that is being registered in the country
year after year. They also expressed their rejection of those
critics who, in the name of opposition, are trying to hold the
country back from the path of development, constantly trying to
destroy Ethiopia’s image by continuous smear campaigns and repeated
distortions of fact.
Although the demonstration in Washington last week is only a
beginning, it is clearly indicative of the apparent paradigm shift
in the politics of the Diaspora. It is clear that the days when only
a few disgruntled extremist Diaspora figures dominated the scene
have gone. The Ethiopian Diaspora is now showing its determination
to support its country’s efforts to make poverty history, and have
decided to play an active part in this historic endeavor.
Coincidentally, last week, after taking stock of the performance of
the last five-year development plan and double-digit growth
registered for the last seven consecutive years, Ethiopia has
unveiled an ambitious Five Year plan, the Growth and Transformation
Plan to target annual economic growth rates well beyond the 11%
average of the last few years. This plan, as its name suggests is
not an ordinary development plan. It envisages a level of economic
growth that will irreversibly transform the Ethiopian economy.
Achieving this vision over the next five years will undoubtedly
require the efforts of everybody, in Ethiopia and in the Diaspora.
This is why the timing of the demonstration last week was so
welcome, as was the commitment of the demonstrators to support their
homeland. It underlines the demand for all Ethiopians abroad to play
an active part in the potentially historic transformation of
development efforts in Ethiopia and its democratization.
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Eritrea
running out of options in its relations with Ethiopia?
The progress that Ethiopia has been making in a range of areas,
political, social and economic has drawn considerable praise from
many sources. The government’s policies in several sectors have
proved their effect, impacting on the lives of millions. Despite
long odds, the peoples of Ethiopia are now seeing for the first time
that victory over poverty is within reach. Ethiopia has made
significant headway into its campaign to get rid of poverty.
Policies in various sectors are paying off, placing the country on
the right trajectory to achieve its economic, social and political
objectives within the foreseeable future. There is now light at the
end of the tunnel and a sense of optimism among various segments of
the population that poverty can after all be relegated to the
backwater of history. The unveiling this week of the government’s
five year Growth and Transformation Plan has made it clear that
Ethiopia is poised to achieve even more effective results in the
next few years. The efforts of the government to strengthen the
institutions of good governance and self administration have clearly
allowed the population at large to give full support to the ongoing
development endeavors. As the elections demonstrated, Ethiopians are
united in support of the campaign against poverty.
The levels of success that have been registered so far have had
effects well beyond the attitudes and aspirations of the peoples of
Ethiopia. Recent developments have indicated there is growing
awareness on the part of elements that have rejected peaceful
dialogue that now is the time to take a long, hard, serious look at
their unhelpful, even destructive, positions. The decision by some
Ethiopian groups that have been involved in armed opposition for
nearly two decades to lay down their arms and accept the
Constitution and join in legal political processes is a most welcome
development indeed. The decision of the United Western Somali
Liberation Front to sign a peace agreement with the government is an
important milestone. It will enable the Somali Regional State to
take full advantage of the various development initiatives in the
country and to further enhance the development of infrastructure in
the region for the benefit of the population. The fact that the
larger faction of the ONLF is now also in the process of making
similar arrangements with the government is another positive step in
the right direction. These decisions by these two groups underlines
a growing realization among even the most staunch opponents of the
political system in Ethiopia, that there has indeed been impressive
progress both politically and economically in the country. This
obviates the need for engaging in activities that undermine the
constitutional order and development and progress. It also
demonstrates that the political system is more than adequate to
accommodate any and all parties that are prepared to follow a
peaceful approach to deal with their differences.
Another development that underlines these changes in attitude is the
growing increase in the level of affirmative engagement by the
Ethiopian Diaspora and the increasing marginalization of
violence-prone opposition forces. As noted above, hundreds of
Ethiopians as well as US and Canadian nationals of Ethiopian origin
recently held a rally in Washington in support of the Government of
Ethiopia’s promotion of the national interests of Ethiopia. It is
encouraging to see such a generous outpouring of support at a time
when a few rejectionist elements among the Ethiopian Diaspora are
still making desperate efforts to drive a wedge between Ethiopia and
its development partners, offering themselves out for hire to any
party that has old scores against Ethiopia. This underlines the
point that despite the shrill cacophony of rejectionist propaganda
attempting to discredit the efforts of the government in economic
development and good governance, the great majority of Ethiopians
abroad are well aware of the progress now being registered. By
coming out en masse to voice their support for such endeavors
irrespective of any political differences they might have, the
hundreds of demonstrators sent an unequivocal message that they will
never again stand idly by as their country and its people dedicate
themselves to make poverty history. This is a very encouraging
development indeed, and represents a real shift in the level and
nature of participation of the silent majority of the Diaspora in
the affairs of their country. It is a clear repudiation of
anti-constitutional violent groups and indicates a resolve to bring
collective influence to work positively to help produce sustainable
economic development and a truly participatory political order.
Not everyone will be happy with these developments notably the
government in Asmara, committed as it has been to scuttling
Ethiopia’s progress for a long time. Indeed that almost appears to
be the main aim of the PFDJ leadership. It has made a number of
efforts to wreak havoc in Ethiopia and even set the whole country
ablaze. One attempt to carry out this out by open aggression was met
by the resolute response of Ethiopia’s armed forces. Eritrea’s
leaders rightly drew the unequivocal lesson that they couldn’t
afford another round of direct confrontation. That hasn’t, however,
stopped the regime in Asmara continuing to make a whole series of
other efforts to undermine Ethiopia’s stability and economic
progress through the use of elements such as the ONLF, the OLF or
die-hard elements of Diaspora-based opposition groups.
Recent developments, however, as mentioned above,
indicate that there hasn’t been too much going for the Eritrean
government lately. Plot after plot against Ethiopia has repeatedly
collapsed, underlining the difficulties of the task they have set
themselves. Given the pattern of their behavior over a decade or
more, it would be naïve to expect the leaders of Eritrea to come to
terms with the waning of their influence, minimal though it might
be, on some of the opposition elements in or out of Ethiopia and
with the futility of their attempt to derail Ethiopia’s development.
Anyone in their right mind would have called it quits long ago, and
looked at an alternative of giving peaceful overtures a try. It
might be a bitter pill but it would acknowledge the realities of the
situation and of the progress Ethiopia is managing to achieve.
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Ethiopia’s foreign policy: the core aims
and intentions
Since 1991, Ethiopia’s national interests have been completely
redefined, to focus on the country’s internal vulnerabilities and
problems, political and economic. The result, systematically laid
out in the Foreign Policy and National Security Strategy a few years
ago, identified the major threats to Ethiopia and indeed to its
survival: economic backwardness and the desperate poverty in which a
large majority of the people exist, together with the understanding
of the need for democracy and good governance and for the
establishment of a democratic structure and government at all levels
throughout the country. Without these, Ethiopia would be unable to
survive as a country. Its very existence would be in doubt.
Indeed, the philosophy behind Ethiopia’s foreign policy is quite
clear: that diplomatic activity should serve the country’s economic
agenda, of providing rapid economic development together with the
objective of advancing democracy. Both goals are an imperative
necessity for maintaining the very viability of the country.
Ethiopia’s foreign policy has to serve these twin objectives: rapid
economic development which aims to provide all members of society
with benefits, and democratization to ensure the most complete
participation of people in administering their own affairs. The
government has, over the last years, therefore centered diplomatic
activities on the promotion of trade, encouraging investment and
tourism.
It has in fact become very clear that Ethiopia’s national security
is bound up inextricably with these factors. Indeed it is not too
much to say that a commitment to democracy and the war on poverty
are the two central elements in national security. Ethiopia is now
dedicating all its capacities, and resources, to reversing the
impact of poverty. It is similarly steadily extending the process of
building up the institutions of democracy and good governance in a
manner which takes into account the realities of Ethiopia,
recognizing the vital principle of unity in diversity, the need for
tolerance and accommodation in light of the diversity of languages,
cultures and faiths.
Closely allied to this, and indeed growing out of it,
is a parallel commitment to peace and security in the region.
Ethiopia has demonstrated its search for this in the excellent
relations it has achieved with all its neighbors – with the one
exception of Eritrea, of course, but as we have emphasized many
times that is not something of Ethiopia’s choosing. Since the end of
the war foisted on Ethiopia by Eritrea’s invasion of Ethiopian
administered territory in May 1998, Ethiopia has very carefully not
responded to numerous, indeed almost continuous Eritrean
provocations, among them what amounts to the tearing up of the
Algiers Peace Agreement of December 2000. Rather, Ethiopia has made
it clear repeatedly that it is totally committed to dialogue as the
means to ensure demarcation and the normalization of relations. It
is prepared for an open dialogue with the Eritrean government
whenever and wherever.
In this context, it was only with the very greatest reluctance that
Ethiopia took the decision to intervene in Somalia in December 2006
at the request of the Government of Somalia, the TFG, when it was
faced by the violent intransigence of the Islamic Courts. It was, of
course, true that the Islamic Courts also posed a threat to
Ethiopia’s national security with their calls for a jihad and for a
renewal of Somali irredentist claims against Ethiopia, and Kenya,
and the links that Al-Shabaab already had with Al Qaeda.
Nevertheless, Ethiopia spent most of 2006 demonstrating a commitment
to peace in Somalia. It strongly supported the discussions between
the ICU and the TFG, and encouraged the TFG to try to continue the
talks long after the ICU had been taken over by hard line elements.
It made numerous efforts to reach agreement with the ICU itself as
well as mediate between the ICU and TFG, holding a series of
meetings with ICU leaders over several months. In all, Ethiopian
officials met eight times with ICU leaders before Ethiopia, very
reluctantly, took the decision to respond to the TFG’s requests and
moved troops into Somalia in reaction to the start of the ICU’s
offensive against Baidoa. Indeed, the final meeting came only days
before Ethiopian forces advanced to Baidoa and stopped the ICU
taking over the city and driving out the TFG.
The central factor in Ethiopian policy in the Horn of Africa has
been its aim to build and cement relations with all its neighbors on
the basis that economic links are the bedrock of sustainable
policies. This is what underlies Ethiopia’s involvement in, and
commitment to, the Inter Governmental Authority for Development, and
its continuous support for the regeneration and revitalization of
the Authority in the last couple of years; and to the Sana’a Forum
for Co-operation which also involves the Republic of Yemen. IGAD, of
course, is one of the Regional Economic Communities for African
integration.
Ethiopia’s approach to its neighbors is in fact designed to
encourage the highest levels of economic cooperation as well as
amicable political and security relations based on mutual trust and
confidence. It is fully aware that without trust there can be no
peace, and without peace, sustainable economic development is
impossible. Indeed, Ethiopia now judges other countries on the basis
of their preparedness to engage in a mutually advantageous
partnership for economic cooperation, investment, trade and
development, as well as for peace and security. This underlines the
relationship with neighbors as well as others, in Europe, the Middle
East, Asia and the Americas. Ethiopia has established cooperation
links with over twenty major donor countries and nine international
organizations. These are involved in numerous development projects
through grants, technical assistance and program and project support
as part of the Plan for Accelerated and Sustained Development to End
Poverty (PASDEP). This lays out the directions of the country’s
economic development and for achieving the Millennium Development
Goals, and Ethiopia is now hopeful of achieving most, if not all, of
the MDGs by 2015.
In other words, a central and basic element of Ethiopia’s foreign
relations today is economic diplomacy. This focus has led to a
number of changes within the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, including
the creation of new departments, among them the Directorate-General
of Business and Economy. This has the responsibility of encouraging
investment in Ethiopia as well as promoting Ethiopia’s exports and
finding new markets using the expertise of the country’s embassies.
Tourism is another area of major interest carried out of course in
co-operation with the relevant ministries and institutions which
also have responsibilities in this area. A related development has
been the recent and extensive growth of infrastructural links with
neighbors. These include new roads, telecommunication lines and
hydro-electric power lines and a number of multi-sectoral agreements
have been signed with Djibouti, Kenya and the Sudan to implement
these projects.
A
related factor has been the government’s policy measures to simplify
or remove the rules and regulations that have made it difficult in
the past for members of the Diaspora to participate in business and
development in Ethiopia. These have included tax holidays for the
import of machinery and equipment for investment projects, access to
land, and the easing of banking and money controls. The result has
been a steady growth in Diaspora involvement with hundreds of
professionals from the Diaspora now facilitating transfers of
technology and know-how and providing support in institutions of
higher learning. A federal level Diaspora Forum coordinates the
activities of a number of government offices for Diaspora issues,
and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs is actively involved in
designing additional policy measures to smooth Diaspora involvement
in development and in the transformation of Ethiopian society.
Ethiopia, in the last few years, has laid the basis for the
essential economic structure it needs for future growth, to become a
middle-income country and to win the war against poverty. It has
laid the foundations for real democracy, building democratic
institutions from the grass roots, and providing the necessary
political space for a responsible democratization process. Of
course, it all remains very much a work in progress and Ethiopia is
very appreciative of all the assistance it has received. It is
equally conscious of the need for continuing strong and sustainable
partnerships with others. Without this, victory over poverty and the
establishment of democracy and good governance will remain all too
distance a dream.
Ethiopia will therefore continue to pursue diplomatic activities
that will help make sure that its economic ties and its co-operation
with traditional partners can be further expanded and deepened while
making every effort to make sure that ties with new partners grow as
rapidly and as practically as possible. Those parties whose
partnership facilitates the achievement of rapid economic
development are the friends whose relationship has the greatest
significance for Ethiopia’s viability as a nation. Ethiopia is very
aware of their value, but it also believes that this cooperation and
partnership must be based on the principles of mutual respect and
the promotion of mutual interest. Ethiopia certainly believes it has
a lot to learn from the experiences of its partners. It doesn’t
however want outsiders to entertain the idea that they can play a
central role, be it political or economic. That will always be an
illusion, as the operation of Ethiopia’s foreign policy underlines.
In fact, The Week in the Horn, starting from next
week, will begin a series of articles looking closely at Ethiopia’s
relations with other selected countries, as well as at the regional,
continental and global organizations to which Ethiopia belongs.
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