A Week in the Horn of Africa

1.6.2007

 The situation in Mogadishu

During his three day visit, Foreign Minister Seyoum had discussions with some 60 Somali elders and religious leaders. He assured the elders of Ethiopia’s support in their quest for a durable peace and stable government. In an exchange of views, participants made it clear their problems were mainly internal and emphasized their need for help in maintaining peace and facilitating dialogue among all parties. The Minister said Somalis had to unite to promote the cause of peace and then “you will win it. Others can help but they cannot replace you”. He called on all Somalis to engage in the national reconciliation process, and told the delegates “You cannot ride two horses at a time: you cannot be in favor of peace and war at the same time.” He said that Ethiopia has been telling the TFG that it must treat all Somalis equally. Ethiopia’s vision, he said, was for a durable peace in Somalia, stability and the ascendance of the rule of law. Minister Seyoum emphasized that Ethiopia would not abandon Somalis in mid-stream; it will withdraw its troops but not until the AU is deployed in order to prevent any political vacuum. In a subsequent press conference, Minister Seyoum said Ethiopian troops would not be pulled out of Somalia until it was clear that their military presence was no longer needed. The minister said that many Somalis had asked Ethiopia not to leave Somalia while it was still vulnerable, and he added that Ethiopia was determined to make sure that terrorists did not return to traumatize the population. Ethiopia, he said, needed to be certain that terrorist elements would not disturb either the Somali government or the Somali population.  

This week, the Mayor of Mogadishu, Mohammed Dheere, announced that the police were taking over from Somali military forces in Mogadishu. Speaking about security, he said that already 16 police stations has been opened, one in each of Mogadishu’s 16 districts, a thousand police had been deployed, and neighborhoods were organizing their own militias to take responsibility for lawlessness and crime in their own localities. Residents, he said, had started cleaning up the piles of rubbish and debris on the streets, refuse that had even been used by extremists on the run. The Mayor said the private sector, particularly banks and communication companies, would act as the engine to restart the economy. The Mayor said any resurgence of terrorism was unlikely because 99% of terrorist capacity had been destroyed, though incidents including assassinations and roadside bombings, did still occur.   

Ethiopia's ambassador to Britain, Berhanu Kebede, has sent a letter to British members of parliament updating them on recent developments in Somalia clarifying the rationale for Ethiopia's intervention and its limited military presence there. Ambassador Berhanu said Ethiopia intervened in Somalia at the invitation of the TFG to deal with extremist elements within the UIC which had been launching attacks on Ethiopia from safe havens in Somalia. Ethiopia’s involvement was a matter of self-defense. The vast majority of Ethiopian troops, he said, had already pulled out though some contingents still remained in Mogadishu where they had recently been engaged in the fighting against remnants of the terrorist groups alongside the TFG security forces. The fighting in April concentrated in two of the sixteen zones of the city where the Ayr sub-clan militia operated and insurgents had entrenched themselves. The Ambassador said Ethiopian forces carried out all operations in a carefully targeted and disciplined manner and took extreme care to avoid civilian casualties.

We were not always successful because of the indiscriminate shelling by insurgents aimed to put blame on TFG and Ethiopian forces. Although some remnants of the Mudjadeen and al-Shebaab extremists were still at large, the Ambassador stressed that organized military opposition had now been defeated. The situation on the ground, he pointed out, is now conducive for the deployment of AMISOM. Disarmament of clan militias, which will facilitate their decommissioning and demobilization, is now in progress. The international community, he said, should help boost peace efforts by expediting the deployment of more AU troops. The withdrawal of Ethiopian troops, of course, hinges on full deployment of AMISOM forces; both the AU and the US have warned Ethiopia not to leave prematurely. Ambassador Berhanu cited lack of resources as a major constraint and urged the release of EU funds for AMISOM. He called on the international community to assist with the immediate and full deployment of AMISOM, with resource allocation for the National Reconciliation Congress, and with provision of humanitarian aid.

On Monday, the Somali parliament approved the plans for the National Reconciliation Congress, by 151 to 9 votes. Prime Minister Gedi told the MPs that the aim of the Congress was to end differences between clans going back 16 years. The main work of the congress will be to work on the federal charter (originally agreed at Mbagathi in 2004), and on the policy of the government. Funding still remains a problem. On Wednesday, Hawiye elders in Mogadishu issued a statement condemning continuing killings and bombings as ‘meaningless and inhuman’. A spokesman said this was a time for peace and stability and to work for reconciliation. He appealed to the population of Mogadishu to help minimize the level of insecurity; those responsible, he said, must stop, in the name of Allah.   

Two point two billion dollars is the figure the UN is putting on rehabilitation for Somalia. This is what the UN Humanitarian Coordination Office for Somalia is proposing for a five year program. This week, 60 civil society leaders and representatives of non-governmental organizations based in Somalia met in Kampala, Uganda, to draw up specific strategies to move the humanitarian situation into 'one of recovery, reconstruction and development' .The program is aimed to increase student enrollment from 25% to 40%; train 300 judges and 10,000 police officers, and improve water supplies to 1.2 million people in both urban and rural areas. The program also aims to raise crop yields by 50% and improve basic infrastructure Funds will be allocated to promote good governance and sustainable peace ($462 million dollars), and another $666 million dollars for improved social services. The remainder will go on producing a sustainable environment for poverty reduction. The UN Humanitarian Coordinator in Somalia, Eric Laroche, said this was the first time a conference had been convened which reflected the needs of the Somali people and had the institutional support of the UN, the World Bank and donor countries; these will be expected to raise the necessary funds.