The situation in Mogadishu

•  On Sunday, Ethiopia reopened its embassy in Mogadishu, for the first time in fifteen years. Foreign Minister, Seyoum Mesfin, and TFG Prime Minister Mohamed Ali Gedi hoisted the Ethiopian tricolor in the newly renovated and refurbished complex. The ceremony was attended by President Abdullahi Yusuf and other officials, as well as the commander of AMISOM. Minister Seyoum said the reopening of the embassy symbolized the friendship between the two countries, noting that previous misunderstandings had “nothing to do with the peoples of the two nations…these are countries which not only share more than 2000 km of common border but also share commonalities of people, religion and culture”. Minister Seyoum said that “..peace and security [had] been jeopardized by a handful of extremists who professed to be holy men…individuals who committed crimes in Somalia and in the rest of the region and who do not have the moral, political, spiritual standing to preach in the name of Islam.” Prime Minister Gedi hoped that other neighbors and countries would now do the same and open embassies. He said that the people and government of Ethiopia had paid sacrifices that Somalis would never forget. Ethiopia is the first country to open its embassy in Mogadishu since the Islamic Courts were expelled from the city in late December.

During his three day visit, Foreign Minister Seyoum had discussions with some 60 Somali elders and religious leaders. He assured the elders of Ethiopia’s support in their quest for a durable peace and stable government. In an exchange of views, participants made it clear their problems were mainly internal and emphasized their need for help in maintaining peace and facilitating dialogue among all parties. The Minister said Somalis had to unite to promote the cause of peace and then “you will win it. Others can help but they cannot replace you”. He called on all Somalis to engage in the national reconciliation process, and told the delegates “You cannot ride two horses at a time: you cannot be in favor of peace and war at the same time.” He said that Ethiopia has been telling the TFG that it must treat all Somalis equally. Ethiopia’s vision, he said, was for a durable peace in Somalia, stability and the ascendance of the rule of law. Minister Seyoum emphasized that Ethiopia would not abandon Somalis in mid-stream; it will withdraw its troops but not until the AU is deployed in order to prevent any political vacuum. In a subsequent press conference, Minister Seyoum said Ethiopian troops would not be pulled out of Somalia until it was clear that their military presence was no longer needed. The minister said that many Somalis had asked Ethiopia not to leave Somalia while it was still vulnerable, and he added that Ethiopia was determined to make sure that terrorists did not return to traumatize the population. Ethiopia, he said, needed to be certain that terrorist elements would not disturb either the Somali government or the Somali population.  

This week, the Mayor of Mogadishu, Mohammed Dheere, announced that the police were taking over from Somali military forces in Mogadishu. Speaking about security, he said that already 16 police stations has been opened, one in each of Mogadishu’s 16 districts, a thousand police had been deployed, and neighborhoods were organizing their own militias to take responsibility for lawlessness and crime in their own localities. Residents, he said, had started cleaning up the piles of rubbish and debris on the streets, refuse that had even been used by extremists on the run. The Mayor said the private sector, particularly banks and communication companies, would act as the engine to restart the economy. The Mayor said any resurgence of terrorism was unlikely because 99% of terrorist capacity had been destroyed, though incidents including assassinations and roadside bombings, did still occur.   

Ethiopia's ambassador to Britain, Berhanu Kebede, has sent a letter to British members of parliament updating them on recent developments in Somalia clarifying the rationale for Ethiopia's intervention and its limited military presence there. Ambassador Berhanu said Ethiopia intervened in Somalia at the invitation of the TFG to deal with extremist elements within the UIC which had been launching attacks on Ethiopia from safe havens in Somalia. Ethiopia’s involvement was a matter of self-defense. The vast majority of Ethiopian troops, he said, had already pulled out though some contingents still remained in Mogadishu where they had recently been engaged in the fighting against remnants of the terrorist groups alongside the TFG security forces. The fighting in April concentrated in two of the sixteen zones of the city where the Ayr sub-clan militia operated and insurgents had entrenched themselves. The Ambassador said Ethiopian forces carried out all operations in a carefully targeted and disciplined manner and took extreme care to avoid civilian casualties.

We were not always successful because of the indiscriminate shelling by insurgents aimed to put blame on TFG and Ethiopian forces. Although some remnants of the Mudjadeen and al-Shebaab extremists were still at large, the Ambassador stressed that organized military opposition had now been defeated. The situation on the ground, he pointed out, is now conducive for the deployment of AMISOM. Disarmament of clan militias, which will facilitate their decommissioning and demobilization, is now in progress. The international community, he said, should help boost peace efforts by expediting the deployment of more AU troops. The withdrawal of Ethiopian troops, of course, hinges on full deployment of AMISOM forces; both the AU and the US have warned Ethiopia not to leave prematurely. Ambassador Berhanu cited lack of resources as a major constraint and urged the release of EU funds for AMISOM. He called on the international community to assist with the immediate and full deployment of AMISOM, with resource allocation for the National Reconciliation Congress, and with provision of humanitarian aid.

On Monday, the Somali parliament approved the plans for the National Reconciliation Congress, by 151 to 9 votes. Prime Minister Gedi told the MPs that the aim of the Congress was to end differences between clans going back 16 years. The main work of the congress will be to work on the federal charter (originally agreed at Mbagathi in 2004), and on the policy of the government. Funding still remains a problem. On Wednesday, Hawiye elders in Mogadishu issued a statement condemning continuing killings and bombings as ‘meaningless and inhuman’. A spokesman said this was a time for peace and stability and to work for reconciliation. He appealed to the population of Mogadishu to help minimize the level of insecurity; those responsible, he said, must stop, in the name of Allah.   

Two point two billion dollars is the figure the UN is putting on rehabilitation for Somalia. This is what the UN Humanitarian Coordination Office for Somalia is proposing for a five year program. This week, 60 civil society leaders and representatives of non-governmental organizations based in Somalia met in Kampala, Uganda, to draw up specific strategies to move the humanitarian situation into 'one of recovery, reconstruction and development' .The program is aimed to increase student enrollment from 25% to 40%; train 300 judges and 10,000 police officers, and improve water supplies to 1.2 million people in both urban and rural areas. The program also aims to raise crop yields by 50% and improve basic infrastructure Funds will be allocated to promote good governance and sustainable peace ($462 million dollars), and another $666 million dollars for improved social services. The remainder will go on producing a sustainable environment for poverty reduction. The UN Humanitarian Coordinator in Somalia, Eric Laroche, said this was the first time a conference had been convened which reflected the needs of the Somali people and had the institutional support of the UN, the World Bank and donor countries; these will be expected to raise the necessary funds. 

• ·Ethiopia began a nine-day population count on Tuesday. The census will be carried out by over 100,000 officials, many of them teachers, and schools closed three weeks early to allow for the preparations. This will be the third census, and it is three years late, the last count being in 1994. In 1994, the population was 54 million. It is widely expected that that this time the population will be close to 80 million. Last year the UN Population Fund estimated the population at over 79 million, making it the second most populous country in Africa, after Nigeria (134.4.million). The census will cost US$ 58.8 million. The count this month is taking place in seven regional states and the two city administrations of Dire Dawa and Addis Ababa. Two other regions, the Afar and Somali regional states, will hold their count in October because of pastoralist movements and climatic conditions. The preliminary figures will be available in five months, after the count in Afar and Somali regions, and the final results in one and a half years. 

• The Ethiopian People celebrated May 28, the anniversary of the overthrow of the Derg on Monday. In a statement, the Ethiopian Peoples Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) noted that 10% economic growth had been achieved over the past four years, following an average of 6% in its first decade of power. This was the highest in Africa for a country without oil resources. Particular progress had been made in the development of roads (cutting the average distance from access to a main road from 6 to 3 hours travel); in the development of hydroelectric resources and electrification in rural areas; in health facilities; and in the expansion of primary education as well as an increase in the number of universities to 23. The participation of all political parties in the last election indicated that Ethiopia has institutionalized a multi-party system. The statement noted that Ethiopia’s role in the fight against terrorism, and in particular in ensuring peace and stability in the Horn of Africa, had resulted in wider recognition for the country. In an interview, Prime Ministerial Adviser, Bereket Simon, said the EPRDF believes that even if the foundation of a democratic system had been laid, the need for ensuring good governance remains one of the major priorities of the government and the party. 

• On Sunday, Deputy Prime Minister Addisu Legesse, presided over a ceremony to rebury the remains of some of those who died in the Red Terror and during the years of the Derg’s military dictatorship. A funeral cortege of 27 coffins, containing bodies originally dumped in mass graves, passed through the streets of Addis Ababa, and a minute’s silence was observed, to symbolize the tens of thousands who died in those years. A memorial monument will be erected in Meskel Square to commemorate those who were killed by the Derg. The deputy prime minister said the history of fratricide had left scars that had to be ended here once and for all. There was a need to cultivate a political culture based on tolerance and to ensure the supremacy of law. The former head of the Derg, Mengistu Haile Mariam, last year was sentenced, in absentia, to life imprisonment. He is currently in exile in Zimbabwe and Zimbabwe has refused to extradite him back to Ethiopia.   

• In an interview with UK journalist Jonathan Dimbleby, for Teachers TV, and broadcast this week, Prime Minister Meles committed himself to keeping up current levels of spending on education, now over 18% of the budget. He noted that defense spending, which had been 15% of the budget during the war with Eritrea (1998-2000) was down to 2%, and he made it clear that Ethiopian involvement in Somalia would not affect expenditure on education and social services. The Prime Minister said that access to education had greatly improved over the last decade (with primary attendance rising from 40% to over 80%, but the drop-out rate remained high; there was room for improvement in the quality of teaching, and in the level of teachers’ salaries. However, he believed Ethiopia would be able to achieve all its Millennium Development goals, including lifting the literacy rate to 50% and that the basis for Ethiopia to become a lower middle-income country had been successfully laid down.  

• The Parliamentary Union of IGAD held a consultative meeting in Khartoum this week, and agreed to hold a foundation conference in Addis Ababa in November. Speakers of the parliaments of Djibouti, Ethiopia, Somali, Sudan and Uganda were present, as well as a representative of the Kenyan parliamentary speaker. Ethiopia and Sudan have signed the document establishing the Parliamentary Union; others are expected to sign next month. Sudan has been assigned the presidency of the Parliamentary Union, with Ethiopia and Djibouti as vice-presidents, and Kenya being general secretary. Meanwhile, following last week’s 50th African Parliamentary Union executive committee meeting in Khartoum, Ethiopia is also going to host the next African Parliamentary Union conference in November as well as the 51st meeting of the executive committee.