1.1 General Policy

The relations we have with a given country or group of countries is based on the protection of national interests and security, and as such, is linked to our democratization and development goals. Our relations with countries in the Horn, therefore, should be seen from the vantage point of how relations could help us promote our agenda of democracy and development. With our eyes firmly on fundamental national interests, we need to draft a policy on the basis of a sober analysis of the value and role of these countries vis-a-vis our own interests.

Ethiopia has had a history of both friendship and hostility with these countries in the Horn, and there is a risk of being guided by emotion in assessing the value of our neighbors. There could be the tendency to exaggerate or minimize their influence of our neighbors in our effort to develop and democratize. It is important to be free of emotions in analyzing the situation.

a) Significance of neighboring countries to the development of Ethiopia

Seen from the economic development angle, our neighbors are short of capital and finance and cannot be considered sources of investment and development finance. We produce similar products and our markets are small with little impact on development. True, we have not exploited our trading possibilities fully and as the region develops, opportunities will grow. But in the present day context, the role of investment, trade and development finance originating from our region, on our development is quite limited.

As regards natural resources, disagreements of differing degrees might be expected to arise with the Sudan, Somalia and Kenya. However, the capacity of our neighbors to utilize water resources is low, and our assessments indicate that the basis for conflicts of interest is not sound. The Horn countries can neither be obstacles for our utilization of water resources nor can they assist us to do so.

Our neighbors have ports and we do not, and as we develop, the need for efficient service rendering ports will be important. Port service provision is to the mutual benefit of both the provider and the recipient of the service. In fact, if some of our neighbors were not to provide port services to Ethiopia, the damage to their economies would be substantial. Therefore, if seen from the economic and mutual benefit point of views; port services would be provided steadily and predictably, and that is the way it should be.

In general terms, it can be said that at this time, our neighbors do not have much of a positive or negative influence on our economic development. What they have of value is port service and the sole danger that would arise is if they were to collaborate to deny Ethiopia the use of their ports or if they were to reduce the efficiency of the ports. Such a situation would not arise from economic interest, but rather as a result of political differences and conflict. One can, however, consider that in the longer term, as our neighbors register greater economic development they could serve as an important market for our products.